Communicating projection uncertainty and ambiguity in sea-level assessment

Kopp, Robert; Oppenheimer, Michael; O’Reilly, Jessica; Drijfhout, Sybren; Edwards, Tamsin; Fox‐Kemper, Baylor; Garner, Gregory G.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Hermans, Tim H. J.; Hewitt, Helene T.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Krinner, Gerhard; Notz, Dirk; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Xiao, Cunde

doi:10.1002/essoar.10511663.1

Cited by 8 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…In the absence of additional evidence, this interpretation acknowledged that the CMIP5 model range was not able to capture all uncertainty sources. This same percentile range was used in AR4, however it was not possible to assign a likelihood for sea-level projections (Kopp et al 2022). In contrast to previous IPCC reports, AR6 combined CMIP6 model-based ECS estimates with multiple sources of evidence, including observed historical warming, paleoclimate data, physical climate process understanding and emergent constraints.…”

Section: Treatment Of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We therefore present the 5th to 95th percentile range of UKCP projections as the likely range. For a detailed discussion on evolving quantified uncertainty, the reader is referred to Kopp et al (2022).…”

Section: Treatment Of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Firstly, we explore the central likely range of GMSL and LMSL projections. In IPCC reports, calibrated language is used to describe quantified uncertainty using imprecise probability terms, where likely characterises the central two-thirds of the probability distribution, for a given scenario with medium confidence (Kopp et al 2022). In AR5, the likely range of sea-level projections was presented as the 5th to 95th percentile range with about two-thirds chance of sea level falling within the presented range, whereas in AR6, the likely range had at least two-thirds probability 'encompassing the outer 17th to 83rd percentiles of the probability distributions considered in a p-box (Le Cozannet et al 2017)' as described in Slangen et al (2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The evolution of UK sea-level projections

Weeks

Fung²,

Harrison³

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The methods used to generate process-based global and local mean sea-level projections have evolved substantially over the last fifteen years, including improved process understanding, advances in ice-sheet modelling, the use of emulators and further development of high-end scenarios. During this time, two sets of UK national sea-level projections have been generated as part of the UK Climate Projections in 2009 (UKCP09; Lowe et al, 2009) and in 2018 (UKCP18; Palmer et al., 2018b). UKCP18 presented local mean sea-level projections for the UK coastline for the 21st century rooted in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and in methods used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), with an emulator-based methodology to provide extended projections to 2300 (Palmer et al, 2018a; 2020).We compare UKCP18 global and local mean sea-level projections with those presented in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, IPCC 2021a). We find the likely range projections (characterising the central two-thirds of the distribution) are broadly similar at 2150 to within 0.1 m, except at Edinburgh, where the maximum difference is 0.22 m under medium emissions. Differences arise due to higher contributions from sterodynamic processes and the Antarctic ice sheet, and higher or lower vertical land movement, in AR6 compared to UKCP18. We also compare high-end sea-level rise estimates, presented in AR6 and UKCP09, finding reasonable global and UK local agreement over the 21st century.We explore future paths for UK sea-level science considering both user needs for information and developments in modelling capability. Future UK sea-level projections would benefit from updated high-end sea-level rise scenarios which extend beyond 2100 and continued efforts to build understanding of observed sea-level change drivers. Alongside close collaboration with user groups this would enhance the utility of local sea-level projections by UK coastal practitioners and decision-makers.

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Section: Treatment Of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Treatment Of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The evolution of UK sea-level projections

Weeks

Fung²,

Harrison³

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Commun.

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“…The modelling uncertainty can be relatively well quantified for some contributions, such as global mean thermal expansion. For other contributions, such as (multi)-century timescale ice mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the uncertainty is characterised as "deep uncertainty", which means that experts do not know or cannot agree on appropriate conceptual models or the probability distributions used (Kopp et al 2022;Lempert et al 2003). These contributions are therefore a topic of much research and debate (e.g., Oppenheimer et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond

Slangen

Palmer

Camargo

et al. 2022

Camb. prisms Coast. futures

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Sea-level science has seen many recent developments in observations and modelling of the different contributions and the total mean sea-level change. In this overview, we discuss (1) the evolution in IPCC projections, (2) how the projections compare to observations and (3) the outlook for further improving projections. We start by discussing how the model projections of 21 st century sea-level change have changed from the IPCC AR5 report (2013) to SROCC (2019) and AR6 (2021), highlighting similarities and differences in the methodologies and comparing the global mean and regional projections. This shows that there is good agreement in the median values, but also highlights some

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“…Can model-based and expert-based projections be combined? One approach is to use a possibilistic p-box (probability box), an envelope that includes multiple quantile functions 3,6 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fusion of Probabilistic Projections of Sea Level

Grandey

Dauwels

Horton

et al. 2023

Preprint

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To combine the complementary strengths of model-based and expert-based projections of sea level, we propose a fusion. The fusion follows the model-based probabilistic projection in the centre of the distribution and the expert-based probabilistic projection in the upper tail. The fusion can be interpreted intuitively as a single probabilistic projection and meets the needs of diverse stakeholders.

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Communicating projection uncertainty and ambiguity in sea-level assessment

Cited by 8 publications

References 33 publications

The evolution of UK sea-level projections

The evolution of UK sea-level projections

The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond

Fusion of Probabilistic Projections of Sea Level

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