Community Perception and Communication of Volcanic Risk from the Cotopaxi Volcano in Latacunga, Ecuador

Abstract

The inhabitants of Latacunga living in the surrounding of the Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) are exposed to several hazards and related disasters. After the last 2015 volcanic eruption, it became evident once again how important it is for the exposed population to understand their own social, physical, and systemic vulnerability. Effective risk communication is essential before the occurrence of a volcanic crisis. This study integrates quantitative risk and semi-quantitative social risk perceptions, aiming for risk-informed communities. We present the use of the RIESGOS demonstrator for interactive exploration and visualisation of risk scenarios. The development of this demonstrator through an iterative process with the local experts and potential end-users increases both the quality of the technical tool as well as its practical applicability. Moreover, the community risk perception in a focused area was investigated through online and field surveys. Geo-located interviews are used to map the social perception of volcanic risk factors. Scenario-based outcomes from quantitative risk assessment obtained by the RIESGOS demonstrator are compared with the semi-quantitative risk perceptions. We have found that further efforts are required to provide the exposed communities with a better understanding of the concepts of hazard scenario and intensity.

Reviewing volcano hazard and risk communications in Ecuador: experiences from a fast-format workshop

“…The most recent notable activity began with the eruptions of Tungurahua and Guagua Pichincha in September and October 1999, respectively, and since then three additional volcanoes (El Reventador, Cotopaxi, Sangay) have erupted in continental Ecuador [Hall and Mothes 2008;Robin et al 2008;Hidalgo et al 2018;Almeida et al 2019;Ortiz et al 2020;Valverde et al 2021]. These volcanoes showed different eruptive styles and eruption durations and led to different impacts on the population: Guagua Pichin-cha's eruption mainly resulted in ashfall on the capital city of Quito and the consequences (especially on the younger population) lasted for a few months [Naumova et al 2007]; Tungurahua's eruption lasted 16 years with explosions that occasionally caused significant ash emissions and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) that impacted local communities in various forms [Few et al 2017]; El Reventador and Sangay volcanoes continue to erupt almost without interruption to this day, with outbursts of explosions and small to medium PDCs and a relatively rapid landscape change [Ortiz et al 2021;Valverde et al 2021]; Cotopaxi volcano's brief reactivation in 2015 lasted for a few months with a paroxysm with a volcano explosivity index (VEI) of 2 and a lowlevel ash plume that caused social distress in nearby (∼14 km) communities [Hidalgo et al 2018;Gomez-Zapata et al 2021]. The high spatial density of active Holocene volcanoes and associated volcanic hazards has impacted pre-Columbian populations [Isaacson and Zeidler 1999;Hall and Mothes 2008;Vallego Vargas 2011;Le Pennec 2013] and continues to impact contemporary populations [Le Pennec et al 2008;Biass et al 2012;Le Pennec et al 2012] in the region.…”

“…tentially devastating primary lahars or mudflows [Mothes et al 2004]. People in the vicinity of Cotopaxi even consider the occurrence of lahars to be impossible within their lifetimes while still acknowledging the volcano as the major local hazard [Gomez-Zapata et al 2021]. Others are unaware that the volcanoes in the Galapagos pose little hazard to the population as they have mostly effusive eruptions with lava flows that extend for a few kilometres from the volcanoes [Naumann and Geist 2000].…”

“…People may be unable to read a map and locate their surroundings, interpret symbols, landmarks, or topographic features such as contour lines. Near Cotopaxi volcano for example, only about half of the respondents of a recent survey know if they live in a hazard zone [Gomez-Zapata et al 2021].…”

“…For many parts of Ecuador, including whole communities, traditional and social media are inaccessible due to the lack of Internet and cell phone coverage, which limits critical information dissemination and adequate communication of evacuation protocols. The consequences of insufficient accessibility to updated information were experienced during the Cotopaxi volcano crisis in 2015, which caused social chaos even with a low magnitude VEI 2 eruption [Gomez-Zapata et al 2021]. Similar information accessibility problems are currently affecting the rural communities near Sangay volcano which continue to suffer the effects of the largest eruptive episode in ~50 years.…”

“…Similar strategies can be implemented in a local fashion to tailor specific information and to progressively enhance communication. For example, the RIESGO demonstrator web tool [Gomez-Zapata et al 2021] allows integration of local expert knowledge (e.g. data from IG-EPN, and provincial entities) and scenario-based models for multi-risk analysis in Latacunga (a city near Cotopaxi).…”