Summary:Quantitative competitive PCR was used to monitor the quantity of cytomegalovirus (HCMV) in 1647 blood samples from 110 BMT recipients. DNAemia was detected in 49/110 (45%) of the patients, of whom 15/49 experienced HCMV disease. Peak virus load during surveillance was elevated in symptomatic (median 4.5 log 10 genomes/ml) vs asymptomatic patients (median 3.6 log 10 genomes/ml, P = 0.002) and was also significantly elevated in HCMV seropositive recipients of seronegative marrow, (R+D−, median 5.0 log 10 ), compared to those in the R−D− and R+D+ groups (P Ͻ 0.01 and Ͻ0.005). Odds ratios for disease per 0.25 log 10 increase in viral load, recipient seropositivity and aGVHD were 1.43 (P = 0.004), 6.60 (P = 0.05) and 3.17 (P = 0.08), respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis only elevated viral load remained a significant risk factor for HCMV disease. The computed disease probability viral load curve showed a rapid increase in disease risk at viral loads between 3.8 and 5.5 log 10 genomes/ml in blood, and odds ratios for disease were determined for different threshold viral loads. These data demonstrate the central role of viral load in the pathogenesis of HCMV in BMT recipients and provide an additional marker for targeting and monitoring therapy.