Comparative Studies on Trade and Value‐Added Trade along the “Belt and Road”: A Network Analysis

Abstract

With the deepening of regional industrial transfer, traditional trade data cannot fully explain the real level of trade in a region. This paper aims to reveal the changing pattern of real trade along the “Belt and Road” by establishing a value-added trade (VAT) network of the “Belt and Road” countries and comparing it with the trade network. Applying a network method, we analyze and compare the structures, characteristics, evolutions, and underlying dynamisms of both networks. With a thorough interpretation and visualization of the network density, network centrality, trade communities, and influencing factors of both networks in the three time sections of 2005, 2010, and 2015, we come to the following findings: (1) the connectivity of both networks has been greatly enhanced, reflecting a more integrated regional economy. (2) The center-external structure of both networks has been further strengthened and the polarization of the VAT network is more obvious than that of the trade network. (3) The organizations of trade communities and VAT communities are largely different. Specifically, China rapidly increased its core position in the VAT network and incorporated more and more countries into its VAT community. (4) The underlying factors have similar impacts on both networks. While the growth of regional economic size and free trade agreements will enhance both trade and VAT, the economic gaps and population differences among the “Belt and Road” countries will prohibit regional economic ties. Based on these findings, we propose suggestions on further regional economic cooperation by taking advantage of China’s core position to promote regional VAT, construct broad trade channels, and enhance trade governance.

Research on Global Grain Trade Network Pattern and Its Driving Factors

“…Fagiolo et al [16] studied the topological characteristics of the world trade network using the weighted network method. Subsequently, scholars have studied the energy trade [17,18], mineral resources trade [19], manufacturing trade [20], and agricultural products trade [7,8,21] networks, using trade volume, trade value or value added, and input-output value as weights to construct types of weighted trade network models.…”

Assessing the structural connectivity of international trade networks along the “Belt and Road”

“…However, for the sake of practical research, the spatial scope of the Belt and Road Initiative still needs to be clarified. With reference to the geographical scope of previous studies on the BRI region [3,4,6], the geographical scope of the study on the BRI trade network refers to the traditional 65 countries along the Belt and Road (that is, the countries along the ancient Silk Road) [1].…”

“…The BRI claims to promote the deep integration of global economic and trade relations and share trade development dividends with a broader range of countries and larger populations [1,2]. Among these objectives, unimpeded trade is a crucial part of promoting the development and cooperation of the BRI [3,4]. To achieve unimpeded trade, trade connectivity needs to be continuously enhanced.…”

“…With the introduction of the BRI, the emerging BRI trade network has given new impetus to studying international trade networks under the framework of constructing free, open, and inclusive global trade relations [18]. Sui et al, for instance, conducted a comparative study of trade and value-added trade along the BRI based on the network analysis perspective [3]. Similarly, Song et al used association analysis to compare the BRI trade network and its topological relationship with the global trade network [6].…”

Analysis Model Design on the Influencing Factors and Countermeasures of China’s International Trade Facing the Belt and Road

“…e "Belt and Road" Initiative takes peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning, and mutual bene t as the core spirit, adheres to the principles of joint consultation, joint construction, and sharing, and sends invitations to all countries and international organizations around the world to jointly address global economic issues, seek new development opportunities, and achieve mutual complementarity of strengths among countries, mutual bene t, and win-win results [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Since the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward, it has attracted wide attention, and more and more countries have participated in it.…”