Comparative study on the reservoir operation planning with the climate change adaptation

Tukimat, Nurul Nadrah Aqilah; Harun, Sobri

doi:10.1007/s42452-019-1472-6

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…However, the use of optimized rule curves partly mitigated the climate change effects in terms of the water supply failure, irrigation water deficit, and drought damage. Concurrently, some studies evaluated the effect of changes in reservoir management criteria on climate change and found that the implemented adaptation strategies can significantly reduce the adverse effects of climate changes on the future water supply (Ashofteh, Rajaee, Golfam, & Chu, 2019; Tukimat & Harun, 2019). Among all, very few studies come up with adaptation strategies by the reservoirs that could solve the future drought and water supply problems completely, which further calls for the combined adaptation options.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Gopalan

Hanasaki

Champathong

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias‐corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non‐structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Gopalan

Hanasaki

Champathong

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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“…Accordingly, several models have been developed to provide adaptive operational rules to consider such induced climate change operational risk. In this respect, the integration of climate, hydrology, and optimization models are used to provide adaptive dam operation rules for various climate change scenarios [119][120][121][122][123][124][125].…”

Section: Topic 2: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Dam System and Reservoir Operational Safety: A Meta-Research

Badr,

Li,

El-Dakhakhni

2023

Water

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Dams are critical infrastructure necessary for water security, agriculture, flood risk management, river navigation, and clean energy generation. However, these multiple, and often conflicting, objectives introduce complexity in managing dam operations. In addition, dam infrastructure has been evolving as complex systems-of-systems with multiple interacting components and subsystems, all susceptible to a wide range of uncertainties. Such complexities and uncertainties have triggered extensive research initiatives focused on dam systems and reservoir operational safety. Focusing on the latter, this paper meta-researches (conducts research-on-research) previously published studies to identify the critical research gaps and propose future research directions. In this respect, this paper first performs a quantitative analysis of the pertinent literature, using text mining and subsequent topic modeling, to identify and classify major and uncover latent topics in the field. Subsequently, qualitative analysis is conducted to critically review the identified topics, exploring the concepts, definitions, modeling tools, and major research trends. Specifically, the study identified seven topics: optimization models; climate change; flood risk; inflow forecasting; hydropower generation; water supply management; and risk-based assessment and management. The study also presents three main research gaps associated with the limitations in modeling concepts, modeling tools capabilities, and the lack of resilience-guided management of dam operational safety. Overall, this study presents a road map of the currently available dam and reservoir operational safety research and associated knowledge gaps, as well as potential future research directions to ensure the resilience of such critically important infrastructure, especially in the age of climate change.

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“…This is not possible in many cases due to the large number of decision variables and the increase in computational costs as well as discontinuity in the goal space. In order to solve this problem in the last two decades, meta-heuristic methods such as Evolutionary Algorithm (EA), methods based on Swarm Intelligence (SI) and algorithms based on simulating physical and chemical laws have been widely used in solving multi-objective models for reservoir water resource planning (Fang & Popole, 2020;KhazaiPoul et al, 2019;Mansouri et al, 2022;SeethaRam, 2021;Sharifi et al, 2021;Tang et al, 2020;Tukimat & Harun, 2019;Yang et al, 2020). In this regard, Yaghoubzadeh-Bavandpour et al compared the performance of SI and EA algorithms for the optimal management and planning of water resources in the operation of reservoirs (Yaghoubzadeh-Bavandpour et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of water re-allocation policy under uncertainty conditions in the inflow to reservoir and demands parameters: a case study of Karaj AmirKabir dam

Tabari

Safari

2023

Soft Comput

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The process of optimal operation of multipurpose reservoirs is accompanied by large dimensions of decision variables and the uncertainty of hydrological parameters and water demands.Therefore, in determining the optimal operation policies (OOPs), the decision making for water allocation is faced with problems and complexities. One of the effective approaches for sustainable management and optimal allocation from water resources is the multi-objective structural development based on the uncertainty of input parameters. The purpose of this study is to provide OOPs from Karaj AmirKabir multi-purpose reservoir with applying uncertainty in the inflow to reservoir and downstream water demand. The proposed approach has been investigated in two certain and uncertain models, and three objective functions of the system including maximizing hydropower generation, water supply demands, and flood control have been considered to formulate OOPs. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) was performed to optimize the three proposed objective functions and by applying multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods, the best operation scenario was selected. In the uncertainty model, using the interval method and repeated implementation of the deterministic model for completely random scenarios that generated based on the variation interval of the uncertain parameters, the nondeterministic optimal allocation values were produced. Based on these optimal allocation values and the fitting of the standard probability distribution on it, the probability of occurrence of the deterministic allocation values was determined. Production of optimal probabilistic allocation policies can be very useful and efficient in providing real vision to managers to select appropriate policies in different conditions and rare hydrological events. The results obtained from the certain model shows that as a result of optimal allocation to demands, the fuzzy reliability, resiliency, and system stability indexes were improved to 67.81, 21.99, and 24.98 percentage, respectively. Also, in an uncertain model, applying changes of 48% and 22%, respectively for the inflow and downstream demand has led to changes of 23%, 55%, and 18%, respectively, in the first, second, and third objective functions. The highest impact from uncertain conditions, has been related to the water supply demands with 55% of the range of variations So, the water supply demands, has a higher sensitivity and priority than other reservoir objective functions under uncertain conditions.Another important result extracted from this study is to determine the monthly probability of optimal allocations achievement. Accordingly, in the warm seasons and years in which the reservoir is facing drought, the occurrence probability of the optimal allocations decreases. Given the comprehensiveness of the proposed methodology, this approach is a very suitable tool for determining the optimal water allocations as probabilistic based on the scenarios desired by managers and reservoir operators.

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Comparative study on the reservoir operation planning with the climate change adaptation

Cited by 6 publications

References 9 publications

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Dam System and Reservoir Operational Safety: A Meta-Research

Development of water re-allocation policy under uncertainty conditions in the inflow to reservoir and demands parameters: a case study of Karaj AmirKabir dam

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