Comparative verification of different nowcasting systems to support optimisation of thunderstorm warnings

Wapler, Kathrin; Goeber, Martin; Trepte, S.

doi:10.5194/asr-8-121-2012

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Lightning data are often used for storm verification or classification purposes (e.g. Kaltenböck et al ., 2009; Wapler et al ., 2012), for climatological analyses (e.g. Wapler, 2013; Piper and Kunz, 2017) or for nowcasting applications (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hailstorms in the Alpine region: Diurnal cycle, 4D‐characteristics, and the nowcasting potential of lightning properties

Nisi

Hering

Germann

et al. 2020

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Nowcasting of hailstorms still poses a major challenge to weather services, because of the limited availability of reliable large datasets and the short spatio-temporal scales involved. Two novel Eulerian and Lagrangian hail climatologies for the Alps are applied to address important aspects of hailstorms in the Alps: the diurnal cycle, their spatio-temporal development and the lightning properties. The database contains more than 100,000 ordinary and 30,000 hail storms (2002-2017). Based on that large sample of storms, the diurnal cycle of storm initiation and evolution is studied in the context of orographic forcing and cold-front occurrence statistics. Results show that, during daytime, storms mainly initiate over the foothills (Prealps) and move towards areas with higher terrain elevations. During night-time, the storms preferably move from the foothills to the plains. Five out of 16 years of the radar-derived convective storms show a significant yearly positive hail anomaly, from which two years show relative hail-initiation maxima evenly distributed over the 24 hour without a characteristic diurnal cycle. Relative hail maxima during night-time cannot always be explained with a higher occurrence of cold fronts. Time series of storm vertically integrated liquid water content are used to separate ordinary and hail storm development. Differences are found between vertically integrated liquid and its density in cold air-mass storms. Finally, lightning data from a ground-based network are combined with the radar-derived hailstreaks and evaluated with respect to their prediction skill as a function of lead time (flash rate, density, peak current, lightning jumps). Results show that lightning data provide only modest skill-scores in nowcasting hailstorms. Only the sudden increase in lightning rate (referred to as lightning jump) may be used as additional data for hailstorm nowcasting. However, their application in automatic nowcasting systems

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hailstorms in the Alpine region: Diurnal cycle, 4D‐characteristics, and the nowcasting potential of lightning properties

Nisi

Hering

Germann

et al. 2020

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Lightning -spatial coverage, pointwise vs. spatial. Wapler et al (2012) computed the probability of detection (POD) by comparing the cells detected by two different nowcasting algorithms to lightning data. The comparison was made both pointwise and using an areal approach (following Davis et al, 2006).…”

Section: Usage Of the New Observations In The Evaluation Or Verification Of Thunderstormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Combination of lightning and report data. Wapler et al (2015) performed a verification of warnings issued by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) for two convective events over Germany. They qualitatively compared warning areas against data from ESWD reports and lightning data.…”

Section: Usage Of the New Observations In The Evaluation Or Verification Of Thunderstormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification

Marsigli

Ebert

Ashrit

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Verification of forecasts and warnings of high-impact weather is needed by the meteorological centres, but how to perform it still presents many open questions, starting from which data are suitable as reference. This paper reviews new observations which can be considered for the verification of high-impact weather and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. Two high-impact weather phenomena are considered: thunderstorm and fog. First, a framework for the verification of high-impact weather is proposed, including the definition of forecast and observations in this context and creation of a verification set. Then, new observations showing a potential for the detection and quantification of high-impact weather are reviewed, including remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and claim/damage reports from insurance companies. The observation characteristics which are relevant for their usage in forecast verification are also discussed. Examples of forecast evaluation and verification are then presented, highlighting the methods which can be adopted to address the issues posed by the usage of these non-conventional observations and objectively quantify the skill of a high-impact weather forecast.

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“…Lightning; spatial coverage; pointwise vs spatial. Wapler et al (2012) pointwise and by using an areal approach (following Davis et al, 2006). They showed how the score improves by increasing the radius of the cell and that the verification is also dependent on the reflectivity threshold used to detect the cells.…”

Section: Usage Of the New Observations In The Evaluation Or Verificatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification

Marsigli

Ebert

Ashrit

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Verification of high-impact weather is needed by the Meteorological Centres, but how to perform it still presents many open questions, starting from which data are suitable as reference. This paper reviews new observations which can be considered for the verification of high-impact weather, and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. Two high-impact weather phenomena are considered: Thunderstorm and fog. First, a framework for the verification of high-impact weather is proposed, including the definition of forecast and observations in this context and creation of a verification set. Then, new observations showing a potential for the detection and quantification of high-impact weather are reviewed, including remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and claim/damage reports from insurance companies. The observation characteristics which are relevant for their usage in forecast verification are also discussed. Examples of forecast evaluation and verification are then presented, highlighting the methods which can be adopted to address the issues posed by the usage of these non-conventional observations and objectively quantify the skill of a high-impact weather forecast.

show abstract

Comparative verification of different nowcasting systems to support optimisation of thunderstorm warnings

Cited by 14 publications

References 14 publications

Hailstorms in the Alpine region: Diurnal cycle, 4D‐characteristics, and the nowcasting potential of lightning properties

Hailstorms in the Alpine region: Diurnal cycle, 4D‐characteristics, and the nowcasting potential of lightning properties

Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification

Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification

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