Comparing Equation-Based and Agent-Based Data Generation Methods for Early Warning Signal Analysis

Reisinger, Daniel; Füllsack, Manfred

doi:10.3390/systems8040054

Cited by 7 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…For comparison, Fig 6 shows results of selected EWS-analyses applied to time series of length 500. The time series were generated with rolling windows over the same parameter spaces as the upward branch (blue in Fig 5 ) of the hysteresis transition, as generated with the EBM and ABM model described above (for details see [ 13 ]).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, in EBMs, noise as a representation of the system’s fluctuations needs to be “manually” added to the “deterministic skeleton” [ 12 ] of the equation. What is more, the addition of noise is not always done with a clear concept of what kind of noise would be appropriate [ 13 ]. ABMs, on the other hand, focus on a system’s component level by considering individual agents and their local interactions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All the more so as the analysis of CSD does not depend on the mathematical representation of a system. It simply requires a way to systematically test systems for their reaction to perturbations, which can be done with either kind of model [ 13 , 17 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As said, its EBM as well as its ABM version are widely investigated and the system it represents is known to exhibit different kinds of critical transitions, which can be interpreted in ecological terms. In recent studies, the EBM as well as the ABM-version of the model have been subjected to “classical” EWS-investigations [ 13 , 24 ]. Here, different to those studies, both versions of the Ising will be subjected to a novel approach for a CSD-based estimation of a system’s equilibria curves around a bifurcation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Transition prediction in the Ising-model

Füllsack

Reisinger

2021

PLoS ONE

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Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system’s state abruptly shifts from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted with a set of methods known as early warning signals. These methods are often developed and tested on systems simulated with equation-based approaches that focus on the aggregate dynamics of a system. Many ecological phenomena however seem to necessitate the consideration of a system’s micro-level interactions since only there the actual reasons for sudden state transitions become apparent. Agent-based approaches that simulate systems from the bottom up by explicitly focusing on these micro-level interactions have only rarely been used in such investigations. This study compares the performance of a bifurcation estimation method for predicting state transitions when applied to data from an equation-based and an agent-based version of the Ising-model. The results show that the method can be applied to agent-based models and, despite its greater stochasticity, can provide useful predictions about state changes in complex systems.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Transition prediction in the Ising-model

Füllsack

Reisinger

2021

PLoS ONE

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“…When raising temperature in the model, spin transitions show in the form of a pitchfork-bifurcation [ 26 ]. But when considering the magnetic field as critical parameter, the system develops a bi-stable region with two stable and one unstable states, creating a combined saddle-node bifurcation and thus an instance of hysteresis.…”

Section: Critical Transitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early warning signals from the periphery

et al. 2021

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Studies on the possibility of predicting critical transitions with statistical methods known as early warning signals (EWS) are often conducted on data generated with equation-based models (EBMs). These models base on difference or differential equations, which aggregate a system’s components in a mathematical term and therefore do not allow for a detailed analysis of interactions on micro-level. As an alternative, we suggest a simple, but highly flexible agent-based model (ABM), which, when applying EWS-analysis, gives reason to (a) consider social interaction, in particular negative feedback effects, as an essential trigger of critical transitions, and (b) to differentiate social interactions, for example in network representations, into a core and a periphery of agents and focus attention on the periphery. Results are tested against time series from a networked version of the Ising-model, which is often used as example for generating hysteretic critical transitions.

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Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

et al. 2023

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A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is the possibility of collapse, where landscapes and the societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies of extreme events and strengthening intersystem connections suggest that conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single stress may provide poor estimates of the impact of climate and human activities on ecosystems. We conduct experiments on four models that simulate abrupt changes in the Chilika lagoon fishery, the Easter Island community, forest dieback and lake water quality—representing ecosystems with a range of anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under increasing levels of primary stress but additional stresses and/or the inclusion of noise in all four models bring the collapses substantially closer to today by ~38–81%. We discuss the implications for further research and the need for humanity to be vigilant for signs that ecosystems are degrading even more rapidly than previously thought.

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Comparing Equation-Based and Agent-Based Data Generation Methods for Early Warning Signal Analysis

Cited by 7 publications

References 31 publications

Transition prediction in the Ising-model

Transition prediction in the Ising-model

Early warning signals from the periphery

Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

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