Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system

Robinson, Sherman; Meijl, Hans van; Willenbockel, Dirk; Valin, Hugo; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Sands, Ronald D.; Wise, Marshall; Calvin, Katherine; Havlík, Petr; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Tabeau, Andrzej; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Schmitz, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lampe, Martin von

doi:10.1111/agec.12087

Cited by 82 publications

(69 citation statements)

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“…22,24,[29][30][31] The main distinction between the CGE and PE models is that the former models capture the whole economy (agricultural and non-AGRs), whereas the latter model captures only the AGR. The main components of CGE models represent agricultural supply (production), demand, and trade.…”

Section: Model Intercomparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It includes 11 economic models: six are CGE models (AIM, ENVISAGE, EPPA, FARM, GTEM, MAGNET), whereas the rest (GCAM, GLOBIOM, IMPACT, MAgPIE), including CAPRI, are PE multimarket models. 24,[29][30][31] We compare CAPRI results with results obtained from these different modeling systems using harmonized input and output data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…39 The resulting changes in regional temperature and precipitation were then used by two different crop models, LPJmL (S3 and S4), and DSSAT (S5 and S6), 39 which produced climate change induced changes in average crop yields. 29,30,32 The crop yield changes are used as exogenous productivity shifters in CAPRI and other AgMIP models to simulate economic impacts of climate change. The simulations were conducted for 2030 and 2050.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

Jacques

Ciaian

Witzke

2015

J. Appl. Remote Sens

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Abstract. The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between −2% and −15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models. © The Authors. Published by SPIE under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. Distribution or reproduction of this work in whole or in part requires full attribution of the original publication, including its DOI.

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Section: Model Intercomparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

Jacques

Ciaian

Witzke

2015

J. Appl. Remote Sens

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“…Banse et al, 2008;van Meijl et al, 2006;Nowicki et al, 2009, Woltjer, 2011. MAGNET is one of the nine global models selected in the OECD\AgMIP model inter-comparison project on the long term future of agriculture (including bioenergy developments; see Nelson et al, 2013;Von Lampe et al, 2014and Robinson et al, 2014.…”

Section: Methodological Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic outlook of sustainable energy and biorenewables innovations (MEV II)

Meijl¹,

Tsiropoulos²,

Bartelings³

et al. 2016

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This study was carried out by LEI Wageningen UR and Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University and was commissioned and financed by the topsector platform for knowledge development and innovation of the crosscutting theme bio-based economy (TKI-BBE) and the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (Min EZ). The study is performed within the BE-Basic R&D programme and project partners Essent, DSM and Corbion provided in-kind contributions to the economic and technical aspects of the work. LEI Wageningen URWageningen, March 2016 REPORT LEI 2016 Van Meijl, H., I. Tsiropoulos, H. Bartelings, M. van den Broek, R. Hoefnagels, M. Van Leeuwen, E. Smeets, A. Tabeau and A. Faaij, 2016. Macroeconomic outlook of sustainable energy and biorenewables innovations (MEV II De Nederlandse overheid verwacht dat een grootschalige toepassing van biomassa nodig is om aan de emissiedoelstellingen te voldoen, maar de macro-economische effecten hiervan op de Nederlandse economie zijn onbekend. Deze studie onderzoekt de effecten van een bio-economie op zowel systeemals macro-economisch niveau en toont aan dat de bio-economie positief kan bijdragen aan de Nederlandse economie, het behalen van broeikasgasreductiedoelstellingen en aan het reduceren van de kosten van het terugdringen van broeikasgasemissies. Om deze effecten te realiseren zijn grootschalige technologische veranderingen en wereldwijde markten belangrijk, maar lage prijzen van fossiele energie leiden tot minder macro-economische voordelen. Om de positieve macro-economische effecten en CO 2 -reductie te realiseren is een stimuleringsbeleid noodzakelijk.To meet the emission targets, the Dutch government expects that a large-scale deployment of biomass is needed but the macroeconomic impacts on the Dutch economy are unknown. This study analyses the impacts of the bio-based economy at both system and macroeconomic levels and shows that large-scale deployment of biomass up to 2030 positively contributes to the Dutch economy, contributes to meeting the emission reduction targets and to reducing its macroeconomic costs. High technological change and global markets are important to achieve these impacts, but low fossil energy prices reduce the macroeconomic benefits. To achieve the positive macroeconomic impacts and emission reduction, a stimulus by policies is necessary.Key words: Bioeconomy, macro-economic impacts, technological change, international markets, bottom-up analyses, modelling, renewable energy policies, bio-refineries, Netherlands. The user may reproduce, distribute and share this work and make derivative works from it. Material by third parties which is used in the work and which are subject to intellectual property rights may not be used without prior permission from the relevant third party. The user must attribute the work by stating the name indicated by the author or licensor but may not do this in such a way as to create the impression that the author/licensor endorses the use of the work or the work of the user. The user may not use the work for commercial purpo...

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“…Economic models are classified into computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and partial equilibrium (PE) models (Robinson, Meijl et al 2014). CGE require general production/cost functions for all sectors, whereas PE models emphasize on a more comprehensive description of technology in agriculture.…”

Section: Integrated Assessments: Image / Globiommentioning

confidence: 99%

Safeguarding water availability for food and ecosystems under global change : modelling and assessment of the role of environmental flows

Kabat¹,

Ludwig²,

Biemans³

et al.

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Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system

Abstract: Journal articleIFPRI3; ISI; CRP2EPTD; PIMPRCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Cited by 82 publications

References 16 publications

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

Macroeconomic outlook of sustainable energy and biorenewables innovations (MEV II)

Safeguarding water availability for food and ecosystems under global change : modelling and assessment of the role of environmental flows

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