Comparison of Ecological Risk among Different Urban Patterns Based on System Dynamics Modeling of Urban Development

Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian

doi:10.1061/(asce)up.1943-5444.0000365

Cited by 27 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…It is feasible to successfully regulate ecological processes and eventually attain regional ecological security by establishing an ecological security pattern. Existing research has concentrated on the establishment of ecological corridors [ 65 ], the delineation of ecological redlines [ 66 ], and the identification of ecological threats [ 67 ]. However, the majority of studies are focused on the current pattern of geographical features, omitting changes in land use caused by natural and human forces.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province

Cao

Liu

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Most studies in the field of ecological restoration have only focused on repairing damaged land and have made no attempt to account for the impact of high-intensity land use on future landscape patterns. The purpose of this study was to propose a framework for evaluating the expected effects of ecological restoration based on land-use change and the ecological security pattern. Therefore, we integrated the PLUS model with the ecological security pattern and used Hefei City as a case study to conduct research. The results showed that from 2020 to 2030, land-use changes would occur primarily in the main urban area of Hefei and along the eastern shore of the Chaohu Lake watershed. Under the ecological protection scenario, arable land would be converted to construction land and woodland. Additionally, there would be an increase in ecological sources and pinch points in the area, and the number and area of the barriers would show a certain degree of reduction. The ecosystem quality, ecological integrity, and landscape connectivity of Hefei would be improved. This study offers a novel perspective for evaluating the expected effects of regional ecological restoration and provides an important reference for the dynamic formulation of multilevel ecological restoration policies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province

Cao

Liu

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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“…Landscape disturbance is an event that causes a direct impact on the structure of a landscape ecosystem and is usually used to characterize the degree of anthropogenic disturbance to the landscape during urbanization or crop cultivation. It has been proved that landscape disturbance caused by the external environment can be indirectly reflected by (a) landscape fragmentation, (b) separation, and (c) fractal dimension indices (Xu & Kang, 2017; W. Zhang et al., 2020). Landscape fragmentation reflects the degree of broken functional links or reduced connectivity between ecosystems (Suriya & Mudgal, 2012); landscape separation measures the degree of separation of patches; and the landscape fractal dimension index indicates the complexity of patch shape (Garibov, 2012; Xie et al., 2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Impact of Landscape Ecological Risk on Water Quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir, China

Cao

Wan

Xiao³

et al. 2022

Earth and Space Science

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Evaluating the spatial‐temporal dynamics in ecological risk and understanding its impact on water quality in reservoirs could optimize watershed land use and protect reservoir water quality. However, this impact remains elusive due to the lack of long‐term field data, the heterogeneity of land use, and scale effects. Therefore, Danjiangkou Reservoir area was selected as the study area, where rapid urban expansion and ecological conservation and restoration measures have significantly changed the ecological environment, altering the water quality. We investigated the spatial‐temporal changes of land use from 1990 to 2020 and evaluated how landscape ecological risk changed, as well as explored the impact of landscape ecological risk changes on water quality. The landscape ecological risk was calculated by landscape vulnerability and landscape disturbance (based on fragmentation, separation, and fractal dimension). The results indicated that the growth rate of water bodies surged (7.65 km2/a) and cropland experienced an apparent reduction (14.39%) over the past 30 years. These landscape changes decreased ecological risk, especially after the water transfer. The results revealed that the impacts of ecological risk on water quality were better explained at the riparian scale than at the reach and catchment scales. Specifically, the ecological risk was strongly relevant to dissolved oxygen, Turbidity, Cl− and NO3− ${{\text{NO}}_{3}}^{-}$, and moderately correlated to Ca2+ and pH. While it was not correlated with total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and F−, possibly due to the irregular reservoir operations, occasional excessive use of fertilizers, and rock weathering. This study preliminarily discloses the impact of landscape ecological risk on water quality in a basin reservoir and provides a theoretical basis to take measures in advance for the sustainable development of a reservoir basin.

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“…A number of papers focussed on narrow environmental topics, such as national park management in relation to urban development (Antunes et al, 2006), global warming and climate change (Fong et al, 2009;Allington et al, 2017;He et al, 2015;Moon et al, 2017), the ecological footprint (Jin et al, 2009), fossil-fuel emissions (Pataki et al, 2009;Hiasa et al, 2016;Procter et al, 2017), safety and terrorism (Thompson and Bank, 2010;Yu and Fang, 2017), ecosystem modelling (Jiang and Chen, 2011;Tsolakis and Anthopoulos, 2015;Xu and Kang, 2016), the self-sufficient and sustainable cities city (Park et al, 2013;Li et al, 2016;Wan et al, 2017;Fang et al, 2017), electricity demand forecasting (He et al, 2017) and chronic diseases in the urban environment (Brittin et al, 2015;Brittin et al, 2015).…”

Section: System Dynamics Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the complexity and focus, three groups of papers can be roughly defined. The first group consists of research papers that develop general models, consisting of land use, population and some form of economic activity (Huang et al, 2014;Lauf et al, 2012a;Lauf et al, 2012b;Wu, 2013, Liu et al, 2013;Zheng et al, 2012;He et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2015;Xu and Kang, 2016;Fu et al, 2017;Geng et al, 2017). The second group consists of papers that develop more complex environment-related sectors, often with specific sectors reflecting the topic under study (Levine et al, 2008;Pataki et al 2009;Tsolakis and Anthopoulos, 2015;Yu and Fang, 2017;Zhou et al, 2017) but with a simpler structure than that of the sectors related to the economy and society (Yuan et al, 2008;Chhipi-Shrestha et al, 2017;Guzman and Orjuela, 2017).…”

Section: System Descriptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Environmental and social impact of urban development. Possible research avenues include: the impact on biodiversity that results mainly from land use (McDonald et al, 2008;Wu et al, 2015); the impact on particulate emissions since this has become an urgent issue related to air quality in cities (Burtscher, 2005;Bank, 2010, Xu andCoors, 2012;Cheng et al, 2015;Macmillan et al, 2016;Xu and Kang, 2016;Guzman and Orjuela, 2017;Wen and Bai, 2017); fluid emissions (Dupré et al, 2014;Sukholthaman and Sharp, 2016;Chhipi-Shrestha et al, 2017;Dasgupta et al, 2017); and the impact of urban development on the sustainability of education, health and crime and security. For example, Eskinasi and Vennix (2009) developed a model with the following sectors: housing, supply, and demand for social housing, and policy response.…”

Section: Knowledge Gaps and Research Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development

Bach

Tustanovski²,

et al. 2019

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Purpose System dynamics is a whole-system modelling and learning approach, useful for tackling non-linear problems, such as sustainable urban development. The purpose of this paper is to review system dynamics applications in the simulation of sustainable urban development over a period from 2005 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach The analysis reveals that the number of applications of system dynamics modelling in the area of urban sustainable development increased in the analysed period. Research has changed its focus from the modelling of environmental problems to more complex models, portraying the multidimensional socio-economic processes that have an impact on the sustainability of urban development. Analysed case studies most often use the behaviour reproduction test for model validation, but without a unified approach. In most cases, modelling has been done in China, Germany and the USA, while urban development in the Eastern European countries, Africa and Latin America has not often been investigated. This paper indicates the knowledge gaps and suggests future research directions. Findings Papers that report the use of system dynamics modelling reveal a wide range of applications in urban sustainability. The analysis shows significant emphasis on environmental problems, while the interest for modelling social problems has been increasing during the last several years. Most of the modelled problems examine the sustainability of resources (land, water) and waste management, which are used for insights into the reasons for the system behaviour, forecasting future behaviour and policy testing. Originality/value The presented models were developed in most cases for the purpose of understanding the phenomena examined, as well as the future use of the models in policy planning. This brings us back to the need for greater stakeholder involvement, not only in the initial phase, but also during the whole modelling process, which could increase understanding, use and ownership of the models in the future, and thus increase their practical application.

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Comparison of Ecological Risk among Different Urban Patterns Based on System Dynamics Modeling of Urban Development

Cited by 27 publications

References 28 publications

Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province

Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province

Exploring the Impact of Landscape Ecological Risk on Water Quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir, China

System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development

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