Comparison of probabilistic choice models in humans

Abstract

Background: Probabilistic choice has been attracting attention in psychopharmacology and neuroeconomics. Several parametric models have been proposed for probabilistic choice; entropy model, Prelec's probability weight function, and hyperbola-like probability discounting functions.

Psychophysical Neuroeconomics of Decision Making: Nonlinear Time Perception Commonly Explains Anomalies in Temporal and Probability Discounting

“…First, our study confirmed that both time discounting and probability discounting with physical time and objective odds against (:= 1/p − 1, proportional to waiting time in virtual repeated gambles) were both in non-exponential forms, consistent with previous studies [19,21,22]. Namely, we fitted exponential, hyperbolic and q-exponential function to both discounting behaviors.…”

The <i>q</i>-Exponential Social Discounting Functions of Gain and Loss

“…The analytical strategy of statistical procedures in the present study was similar to that in our previous studies on intertemporal choice models [3][4][5][6][7]10,13,14]. We fitted the three types of the social discount model equations (i.e.…”

“…We fitted the three types of the social discount model equations (i.e. Equations (1)-(3)) to the behavioral data of indifference points with the Gauss-Newton algorithm (R statistical language, non-linear modeling package), and the fitness of each equation was estimated with AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values, which is the most standard criterion for the fitness of mathematical model to observed data, following previous studies [3][4][5][6][7]10,14]. It is to be noted that smaller AIC values correspond to better fitting (better fitting in terms of smaller AIC indicates a better tradeoff between overfitting and poor fitting).…”

“…Applications of mathematical functions originally developed in mathematical and statistical physics to social sciences such as behavioral economics and neuroeconomics have been attracting attention [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. These applications have started to elucidate anomalous human behaviors such as irrationality in individual decision making (e.g., hyperbolic temporal discounting [14] and altruism [11]).…”

Sleep Deprivation Is Associated with Attenuated Parametric Valuation and Control Signals in the Midbrain during Value-Based Decision Making

“…A probability discount rate of k ϭ 1 entails riskneutral behavior. For comparison, we also fit our data with a different risky choice model, Prelec's probability weighting function (Prelec, 1998;Paulus and Frank, 2006;Takahashi et al, 2007Takahashi et al, , 2010Hsu et al, 2009) in its dualparameter implementation:…”