Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather

Cary, Geoffrey J.; Keane, Robert E.; Gardner, Robert H.; Lavorel, Sandra; Flannigan, Mike D.; Davies, Ian D.; Li, Chao; Lenihan, James M.; Rupp, T. Scott; Mouillot, Florent

doi:10.1007/s10980-005-7302-9

Cited by 169 publications

(167 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Generally models show a large influence of climate and weather on landscape-fire-succession, although terrain complexity and fuel patterns are also relevant (Rollins et al, 2002;Cary et al, 2006). The importance of the precipitation regime on extreme fire occurrences is undoubted (Pausas, 2004;Trouet et al, 2006;Pausas and Bradstock, 2007), even in the modern humanised landscape.…”

Section: Climate Versus Human-driven Holocene Fire Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fire-landscape interactions are still scarcely understood because of the complexity of fire ignition and propagation processes (Mouillot et al, 2003;Arora and Boer, 2005;Salvador et al, 2005;Cary et al, 2006;Heinl et al, 2006;Santoni et al, 2006). During recent decades fire-history studies from the Pacific Northwest of North America, as well as South America, Australia, and central and boreal Europe have progressively contributed to the present knowledge about Holocene fire-climate-vegetation-human interactions (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes: the Holocene record of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy)

Vannière

Colombaroli

Chapron

et al. 2008

Quaternary Science Reviews

216

169

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A high-resolution sedimentary charcoal record from Lago dell'Accesa in southern Tuscany reveals numerous changes in fire regime over the last 11.6 kyr cal. BP and provides one of the longest gap-free series from Italy and the Mediterranean region. Charcoal analyses are coupled with gamma density measurements, organic-content analyses, and pollen counts to provide data about sedimentation and vegetation history. A comparison between fire frequency and lake-level reconstructions from the same site is used to address the centennial variability of fire regimes and its linkage to hydrological processes. Our data reveal strong relationships among climate, fire, vegetation, and land-use and attest to the paramount importance of fire in Mediterranean ecosystems. The mean fire interval (MFI) for the entire Holocene was estimated to be 150 yr, with a minimum around 80 yr and a maximum around 450 yr. Between 11.6 and 3.6 kyr cal. BP, up to eight high-frequency fire phases lasting 300-500 yr generally occurred during shifts towards low lake-level stands (ca 11,300, 10,700, 9500, 8700, 7600, 6200, 5300, 3400, 1800 and 1350 cal. yr BP). Therefore, we assume that most of these shifts were triggered by drier climatic conditions and especially a dry summer season that promoted ignition and biomass burning. At the beginning of the Holocene, high climate seasonality favoured fire expansion in this region, as in many other ecosystems of the northern and southern hemispheres. Human impact affected fire regimes and especially fire frequencies since the Neolithic (ca 8000-4000 cal. yr BP). Burning as a consequence of anthropogenic activities became more frequent after the onset of the Bronze Age (ca 3800-3600 cal. yr BP) and appear to be synchronous with the development of settlements in the region, slash-and-burn agriculture, animal husbandry, and mineral exploitation. The anthropogenic phases with maximum fire activity corresponded to greater sensitivity of the vegetation and triggered significant changes in vegetational communities (e.g. temporal declines of Quercus ilex forests and expansion of shrublands and macchia). The link between fire and climate persisted during the mid-and late Holocene, when human impact on vegetation and the fire regime was high. This finding suggests that climatic conditions were important for fire occurrence even under strongly humanised ecosystem conditions.

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Section: Climate Versus Human-driven Holocene Fire Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes: the Holocene record of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy)

Vannière

Colombaroli

Chapron

et al. 2008

Quaternary Science Reviews

216

169

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“…This uncontrolled hazard may be the major factor reshaping the vegetation, faster and deeper than the climate change itself (Cary et al, 2006). The risk is all the more important as Bi indexes are low.…”

Section: Other Potential Scientific and Operational Uses Of The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new bioclimatic model calibrated with vegetation for Mediterranean forest areas

et al. 2008

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Keywords:bioclimatic model / Mediterranean forest / water availability / floristic analysis / PLS regression / Provence Abstract • Water availability is one of the main factors explaining flora composition and growth in Mediterranean regions, where it may decline with climate change.• Our goal was to develop a model for forest site assessment in Mediterranean environments, focusing on water availability to assess potential vegetation composition and productivity in any places, whatever their level of disturbance.• We designed a statistical model, using global climatic and geographic variables, as well as detailed local topographic and edaphic variables, to compute a bioclimatic index for Mediterranean forest environments. This model was calibrated in France with a flora index from 325 old forests. The model explained 80.3% of the flora index variance. The method fills a gap in existing models, bridging scales from the region to forest sites.• Beyond its theoretical aspect, it was designed to allow practical tools to be derived from it for decision-making and management, such as the assessment of climate change impact on vegetation, and of forest productivity. Its development and adaptation is possible in other Mediterranean regions, and in any region where water is one of the main limiting factors. Mots-clés :modèle bioclimatique / forêt méditerranéenne / disponibilité en eau / analyse floristique / régression PLS / Provence Résumé -Un nouveau modèle bioclimatique calibré à l'aide de la flore pour les milieux forestiers méditerranéens.• La disponibilité en eau est un des principaux facteurs contrôlant la composition et la croissance de la flore en région méditerranéenne. Elle devrait décroître avec le changement climatique.• Notre objectif était de développer un modèle pour l'analyse stationnelle des milieux forestiers mé-diterranéens. Basé sur la disponibilité de l'eau, il devait permettre l'évaluation de leur flore potentielle et de leur productivité, quel que soit leur état de perturbation.• Nous avons conçu un modèle statistique, utilisant conjointement des variables globales, climatiques et géographiques, et des variables locales topographiques et édaphiques pour calculer un indice bioclimatique adapté aux milieux forestiers méditerranéens. Ce modèle a été calibré en France sur 325 placettes de forêts âgées à l'aide d'un indice floristique dont il explique 80.3 % de la variance. Avec des échelles de travail allant en continu de la région à la station forestière, la méthode comble un vide dans la gamme des modèles existants.• Ce modèle ouvre des perspectives pour l'évaluation de l'impact du changement climatique sur la flore et de la productivité forestière. La méthode peut être adaptée à d'autres régions méditerranéennes et à toute région où le bilan hydrique est un des principaux facteurs limitants. * Corresponding author: michel.vennetier@cemagref.frArticle published by EDP Sciences Ann. For. Sci. 65 (2008) 711 M. Vennetier et al. INTRODUCTION ContextMediterranean forests of Europe and North Africa are...

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“…They can be applied to predict the behaviour of an individual fire event in detail or to generate process-based fire vulnerability maps (e.g., Keane et al, 2010: FIRE-HARM). Such dynamic spatial simulation models addressing fire behaviour explicitly have been increasingly presented and applied over the last years (Cary et al, 2006(Cary et al, , 2009Finney et al, 2007: FVS;King et al, 2008: FIRESCAPE). For an in-depth discussion of the merits of alternative approaches to fire behaviour modelling we refer to Sullivan (2009).…”

Section: Occurrencementioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

Seidl

Fernandes

Fonseca

et al. 2011

Ecological Modelling

357

219

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Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather

Cited by 169 publications

References 52 publications

Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes: the Holocene record of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy)

Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes: the Holocene record of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy)

A new bioclimatic model calibrated with vegetation for Mediterranean forest areas

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

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