Competing roles of rising CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; and climate change in the contemporary European carbon balance

Harrison, Giles; Jones, Chris

doi:10.5194/bgd-4-2385-2007

Cited by 11 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…A warmer future climate allows northward expansion of the boreal forest into present day tundra regions due to both longer snow‐free growing season and higher summer temperature. Such expansion has been reported in several vegetation models (Sitch et al, 2008) and for several GCMs (Scholze et al, 2006) and has also been seen in the palaeo‐record during previous warm periods (Macdonald et al, 2008), although a longer growing season does not necessarily imply an enhanced carbon uptake as higher temperatures also allow enhanced soil respiration (Harrison et al, 2008; Piao et al, 2008).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 64%

“…After the 2012 action point the changes in extra‐tropical carbon are mainly in the biomass (Fig. 3), caused by both CO 2 fertilization of plant growth and also some enhancement of boreal forest growth due to slightly warmer conditions (in particular a longer snow‐free growing season (Harrison et al, 2008; Piao et al 2008). Changes in soil carbon storage are very small with extra input of organic matter from plant litterfall countered by enhanced microbial decomposition in the warmer temperatures, although regionally extra‐tropical soil shows net accumulation in North America and loss over Eurasia.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Role of terrestrial ecosystems in determining CO2 stabilization and recovery behaviour

Jones¹,

Liddicoat

Lowe

2010

Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology

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Terrestrial ecosystems are sensitive to climate and can also influence it through both biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks. Natural carbon uptake by ecosystems will control future evolution of CO2 and climate, but the ecosystems themselves may be committed to long‐term changes. Here we use a coupled climate‐carbon cycle GCM with dynamic vegetation to investigate the policy‐relevance of these feedbacks in several idealized scenarios. Our results show that the natural carbon cycle in the ocean and on land controls the recovery of atmospheric CO2 following emissions reductions at three action points during the 21st century. Initial rates of recovery are similar but for different reasons. Ocean carbon uptake exceeds terrestrial uptake, with higher CO2 levels leading to increased ocean uptake whereas on land greater climate change at higher CO2 leads to decreased carbon storage. There are long‐term committed changes to terrestrial ecosystems which vary in sign regionally and create a complex dynamic response of terrestrial carbon storage as it slowly approaches a new steady state. Neither stabilization nor CO2 recovery allows ecosystems to recover back to their initial state and the ecosystems continue to respond for decades or even centuries following emissions reductions. These long‐term committed changes, in addition to realized, transient changes, must be considered when defining dangerous climate change and identifying emission‐pathways to avoid it.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of terrestrial ecosystems in determining CO2 stabilization and recovery behaviour

Jones¹,

Liddicoat

Lowe

2010

Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology

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“…Modelling the seasonality is still a challenge for vegetation models today (Sasai et al, 2007;Ricciuto et al, 2008;Harrison et al, 2008).…”

Section: Seasonality Of the Biochemical Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing seasonality of biochemical CO2 exchange model parameters from micrometeorological flux observations at boreal coniferous forest

et al. 2008

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Abstract. The seasonality of the NEE of the northern boreal coniferous forests was investigated by means of inversion modelling using eddy covariance data. Eddy covariance data was used to optimize the biochemical model parameters. Our study sites consisted of three Scots pine (l. Pinus sylvestris) forests and one Norway spruce (l. Picea abies) forest that were located in Finland and Sweden. We obtained temperature and seasonal dependence for the biochemical model parameters: the maximum rate of carboxylation (V c(max) ) and the maximum rate of electron transport (J max ). Both of the parameters were optimized without assumptions about their mutual magnitude. The values obtained for the biochemical model parameters were similar at all the sites during summer time. To describe seasonality, different temperature fits were made for the spring, summer and autumn periods. During summer, average J max across the sites was 54.0 µmol m −2 s −1 (variance 31.2 µmol m −2 s −1 ) and V c(max) was 12.0 µmol m −2 s −1 (variance 6.6 µmol m −2 s −1 ) at 17 • C. The sensitivity of the model to LAI and atmospheric soil water stress was also studied. The impact of seasonality on annual GPP was 17% when only summertime parameterization was used throughout the year compared to seasonally changing parameterizations.

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“…The last transient model runs from 1958-2005 use observed CO 2 concentrations and corresponding meteorological data from REMO. Although rising CO 2 levels are responsible for long term net carbon uptake, interannual variability in these simulations is driven solely by climate variations (Harrison et al, 2008). These final runs are the basis of our analysis.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models

et al. 2008

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Abstract. Globally, the year 2003 is associated with one of the largest atmospheric CO 2 rises on record. In the same year, Europe experienced an anomalously strong flux of CO 2 from the land to the atmosphere associated with an exceptionally dry and hot summer in Western and Central Europe. In this study we analyze the magnitude of this carbon flux anomaly and key driving ecosystem processes using simulations of seven terrestrial ecosystem models of different complexity and types (process-oriented and diagnostic). We address the following questions: (1) how large were deviations in the net European carbon flux in 2003 relative to a shortterm baseline (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002) C for Western Europe and between 24 and -129 Tg C for Central Europe depending on the model used. All models responded to a dipole pattern of the climate anomaly in 2003. In Western and Central Europe NEP was reduced due to heat and drought. In contrast, lower than normal temperatures and higher air humidity decreased NEP over Northeastern Europe. While models agree on the sign of changes in simulated NEP and gross primary productivity in 2003 over Western and Central Europe, models diverge in the estimates of anomalies in ecosystem respiration. Except for two process models which simulate respiration increase, most models simulated a decrease in ecosystem respiration in 2003. The diagnostic models showed a weaker decrease in ecosystem respiration than the process-oriented models.Based on the multi-model simulations we estimated the total carbon flux anomaly over the 2003 growing season in Europe to range between -0.02 and -0.27 Pg C relative to the net carbon flux in 1998-2002.

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Competing roles of rising CO<sub>2</sub> and climate change in the contemporary European carbon balance

Cited by 11 publications

References 39 publications

Role of terrestrial ecosystems in determining CO<sub>2</sub> stabilization and recovery behaviour

Role of terrestrial ecosystems in determining CO<sub>2</sub> stabilization and recovery behaviour

Assessing seasonality of biochemical CO<sub>2</sub> exchange model parameters from micrometeorological flux observations at boreal coniferous forest

Analyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models

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Competing roles of rising CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and climate change in the contemporary European carbon balance

Cited by 11 publications

References 39 publications

Role of terrestrial ecosystems in determining CO<sub>2</sub> stabilization and recovery behaviour

Role of terrestrial ecosystems in determining CO<sub>2</sub> stabilization and recovery behaviour

Assessing seasonality of biochemical CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; exchange model parameters from micrometeorological flux observations at boreal coniferous forest

Analyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models

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Competing roles of rising CO<sub>2</sub> and climate change in the contemporary European carbon balance

Assessing seasonality of biochemical CO<sub>2</sub> exchange model parameters from micrometeorological flux observations at boreal coniferous forest