Compilation of surface creep on California faults and comparison of WGCEP 2007 deformation model to Pacific-North American plate Mmtion

Wisely, B. A.; Schmidt, D. A.; Weldon, Ray J.

doi:10.3133/ofr20071437p

Cited by 6 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…The 5%-10% differences between our model and values expected for the plate boundary are almost certainly within the combined uncertainties ( for discussion of uncertainty ranges see Appendix P; Wisely et al, 2007). If significant, the additional strain implied by the slightly greater plate motion (∼10%) may be accommodated aseismically.…”

Section: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 2 (Usupporting

confidence: 63%

“…To determine the factors, we conducted an extensive literature search to identify and characterize all of the faults with known surface creep in California. The results are presented in a series of tables and maps in Appendix P (Wisely et al, 2007). Creep includes continuous or episodic fault slip, often associated with nearby earthquakes; where known, such earthquake associations are documented.…”

Section: Aseismic-slip Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In northern California, most of the nonzero values come directly from WGCEP (2003) In southern California, aseismic-slip factors of 0.1 were assigned to the San Andreas (Coachella section), Imperial, Garlock (west), San Jacinto (Borrego), and Superstition Hills faults for consistency with all other faults that creep (Wisely et al, 2007;Appendix P). The minimum value of 0.1 was based on the calculations of Sieh and Williams (1990) for the Coachella section of the San Andreas fault, suggesting that the fault slipped to at least 10% of its locked depth and the similar setting of the other faults within the Imperial Valley.…”

Section: Aseismic-slip Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used the method of Humphreys and Weldon (1994) to accumulate uncertainty along the path and used several of their input values where the UCERF 2 deformation model does not contain required data, including uncertainties in the rake and orientation of the faults, deformation between stable North America and the eastern edge of the UCERF 2 region (taken to be the eastern edge of California for this analysis), and block rotations. All of the data used in the analysis (and additional discussion) can be found in Appendix P (Wisely et al, 2007); we only present results for deformation model 2.1, because the results do not vary significantly between the different deformation models, which mainly trade motion between the subparallel San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. The paths were chosen, from south to north, to cross the plate boundary: (1) south of the Transverse Ranges, (2) through the Transverse Ranges, (3) through central California, and (4) through the Bay Area in northern California (Fig.…”

Section: Path-integral Tests Of Deformation Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this test, we compared the resulting magnitude and orientation of principal strain axes calculated from the strain tensors with the same values expected for the plate motion deforming equivalent volumes. We used the Kostrov (1974) method as presented in Aki and Richards (1980); details of our data input, calculations, results, references describing the limitations of the method, and additional discussion are included in Appendix P (Wisely et al, 2007). We have considered seven 3D volumes oriented perpendicular to the plate-boundary (Fig.…”

Section: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 2 (Umentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

Field

Dawson

Felzer

et al. 2009

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

275

183

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The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6:5 ≤ M ≤ 7:0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ≥ 6:7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ≥ 7:5 and to 4.5% for M ≥ 8:0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ≥ 8:0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ≥ 6:7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

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Section: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 2 (Usupporting

confidence: 63%

Section: Aseismic-slip Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aseismic-slip Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Path-integral Tests Of Deformation Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 2 (Umentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

Field

Dawson

Felzer

et al. 2009

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

275

183

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Testing the inference of creep on the northern Rodgers Creek fault, California, using ascending and descending persistent scatterer InSAR data

Jin

Funning

2017

JGR Solid Earth

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We revisit the question of whether the Rodgers Creek fault in northern California is creeping, a question with implications for seismic hazard. Using imagery acquired by Envisat between 2003 and 2010, we process two persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data sets, one from an ascending track and the other from a descending track, covering the northernmost segment of the Rodgers Creek fault between the cities of Santa Rosa and Healdsburg. The two different viewing geometries provided by the two different tracks allow us to distinguish vertical velocities, which may reflect nontectonic deformation processes, from fault‐parallel velocities, which can be used to identify creep. By measuring offsets in InSAR line‐of‐sight velocity from 12 fault‐perpendicular profiles through both data sets, we identify seven locations where we have a high degree of confidence that creep is occurring (estimated creep rate is more than two standard deviations above zero). The preferred creep rates at these locations are in the range 1.9–6.7 mm/yr, consistent within uncertainty with alignment array measurements. Creep is probable (P≥0.70) at another three locations, defining a creeping zone ∼20 km long in total, extending northwest from Santa Rosa. We also estimate the map patterns of fault‐parallel and vertical velocities in the region covered by both data sets; these suggest that the Rodgers Creek fault immediately southeast of Santa Rosa remains locked.

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The Swiss army knife of time series data mining: ten useful things you can do with the matrix profile and ten lines of code

Zhu

Gharghabi

Silva

et al. 2020

Data Min Knowl Disc

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The recently introduced data structure, the Matrix Profile, annotates a time series by recording the location of and distance to the nearest neighbor of every subsequence. This information trivially provides answers to queries for both time series motifs and time series discords, perhaps two of the most frequently used primitives in time series data mining. One attractive feature of the Matrix Profile is that it completely divorces the high-level details of the analytics performed, from the computational "heavy lifting." The Matrix Profile can be computed using the appropriate computational paradigm for the task at hand: CPU, GPU, FPGA, distributed computing, anytime computation, incremental computation, and so forth. However, all the details of such computation can be hidden from the analyst who only needs to think about her analytical need. In this work, we expand on this philosophy and ask the following question: If we assume that we get the Matrix Profile for free, what interesting analytics can we do, writing at most ten lines of code? As we will show, the answer is surprisingly large and diverse. Our aim here is not to establish or compete with state-of-the-art results, but merely to show that we can both reproduce the results of many existing algorithms and find novel regularities in time series data collections with very little effort.

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Compilation of surface creep on California faults and comparison of WGCEP 2007 deformation model to Pacific-North American plate Mmtion

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

Testing the inference of creep on the northern Rodgers Creek fault, California, using ascending and descending persistent scatterer InSAR data

The Swiss army knife of time series data mining: ten useful things you can do with the matrix profile and ten lines of code

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