Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity

Urban, Nathan M.; Keller, Klaus

doi:10.1029/2008gl036457

Cited by 33 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…1, middle panel). Our analysis suggests that the net anthropogenic RF did not cause a global cooling as is observed (Trenberth et al, 2007) during this period. The posterior RF for the total aerosol effect is weaker than the prior assumptions (Fig.…”

Section: Main Analysismentioning

confidence: 65%

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is constrained based on observed near-surface temperature change, changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and detailed radiative forcing (RF) time series from pre-industrial times to 2010 for all main anthropogenic and natural forcing mechanism. The RF time series are linked to the observations of OHC and temperature change through an energy balance model (EBM) and a stochastic model, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS and other unknown parameters from the data. For the net anthropogenic RF the posterior mean in 2010 is 2.0 Wm −2 , with a 90 % credible interval (C.I.) of 1.3 to 2.8 Wm −2 , excluding present-day total aerosol effects (direct + indirect) stronger than −1.7 Wm −2 . The posterior mean of the ECS is 1.8 • C, with 90 % C.I. ranging from 0.9 to 3.2 • C, which is tighter than most previously published estimates. We find that using three OHC data sets simultaneously and data for global mean temperature and OHC up to 2010 substantially narrows the range in ECS compared to using less updated data and only one OHC data set. Using only one OHC set and data up to 2000 can produce comparable results as previously published estimates using observations in the 20th century, including the heavy tail in the probability function. The analyses show a significant contribution of internal variability on a multi-decadal scale to the global mean temperature change. If we do not explicitly account for long-term internal variability, the 90 % C.I. is 40 % narrower than in the main analysis and the mean ECS becomes slightly lower, which demonstrates that the uncertainty in ECS may be severely underestimated if the method is too simple. In addition to the uncertainties represented through the estimated probability density functions, there may be uncertainties due to limitations in the treatment of the temporal development in RF and structural uncertainties in the EBM.

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Section: Main Analysismentioning

confidence: 65%

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series

et al. 2014

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“…Similar to Yohe et al (2004) we account for the positive correlation between estimates of climate sensitivity and the vertical ocean diffusivity (cf. Urban and Table 1 and text), the correlation between the vertical ocean diffusivity K v and climate sensitivity ( Keller 2009) using a nonlinear mapping between climate sensitivity and ocean diffusivity derived from a model fit to the observations.…”

Section: Climate Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

2011

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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the

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“…One concern that some climate scientists are beginning to discuss is how ignoring such low probability, high impact events in models, a quite commonplace practice in climate modeling, can result in research being biased towards overconfident climate change projections (Mastrandrea and Schneider 2004;Schneider 2001;Urban and Keller 2009;Goes et al. forthcoming).…”

Section: Integrated Assessment Modelsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Leading with ethics, aiming for policy: new opportunities for philosophy of science

Tuana

2010

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The goal of this paper is to articulate and advocate for an enhanced role for philosophers of science in the domain of science policy as well as within the science curriculum. I argue that philosophy of science as a field can learn from the successes as well as the mistakes of bioethics and begin to develop a new model that includes robust contributions to the science classroom, research collaborations with scientists, and a role for public philosophy through involvement in science policy development. Through an analysis of two case studies, I illustrate how philosophers of science can make effective and productive contributions to science education as well as to interdisciplinary scientific research, and argue for the essential role of philosophers of science in the realm of science policy.

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Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity

Cited by 33 publications

References 21 publications

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

Leading with ethics, aiming for policy: new opportunities for philosophy of science

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