Complex responses of insect phenology to climate change

Forrest, Jessica R. K.

doi:10.1016/j.cois.2016.07.002

Cited by 304 publications

(272 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Potentially one of the most underappreciated mechanisms by which asynchronous regimes can disrupt population dynamics is through the induction of developmental traps in species that cycle through multiple generations during a single year (Forrest 2016). In these species, warming spring and summer temperatures that are counteracted by cooling fall conditions can initiate the production of 'lost generations' (Chinellato et al 2014, van Dyck et al 2015, Glazaczow et al 2016.…”

Section: The Effects Of Asynchronous Climate Change Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

2017

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Global climate change has already caused local declines and extinctions. These losses are generally thought to occur because climate change is progressing too rapidly for populations to keep pace. Based on this hypothesis, numerous predictive frameworks have been developed to project future range shifts and changes in population dynamics resulting from global climate change. However, recent empirical work has demonstrated that seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes -when a region is warming during some parts of the year, but cooling in others -are constraining species' responses to climate change more strongly than rapid warming, leading to intra-specific variation in responses to climate change and local population declines. Here, we couple a review of the literature related to asynchronous climate change regimes with meta-population simulations and an analysis of long-term North American climate trends to show that seasonally asynchronous regimes are occurring throughout most of North America and that their current spatial distribution may be a strong barrier to dispersal and gene flow across many species' ranges. Thus, even though adaptation to climate change may potentially be more common and rapid than previously thought, species whose ranges overlap with asynchronous regimes will likely succumb to local declines that may be difficult to mitigate via dispersal. Future climate-related predictive frameworks should therefore incorporate asynchronous regimes as well as more traditional measures of climate velocity in order to fully capture the array of potential future climate change scenarios.

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Section: The Effects Of Asynchronous Climate Change Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

2017

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“…Facultative diapause (herein referred to as "diapause") is a state of environmentally programmed and centrally regulated developmental arrest, usually accompanied by metabolic suppression, which secures survival over unfavorable seasons and synchronizes the insect life cycle to the seasonality of abiotic environmental factors and biotic interactions (1)(2)(3)(4)(5). An improved knowledge of diapause is essential for understanding insect life cycles and for the development of management strategies for economically important insect pests (6) and accurate predictions of insect populations' responses to climate change (7).…”

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confidence: 99%

Conceptual framework of the eco-physiological phases of insect diapause development justified by transcriptomic profiling

Košťál

Štětina

Poupardin

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

136

100

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Insects often overcome unfavorable seasons in a hormonally regulated state of diapause during which their activity ceases, development is arrested, metabolic rate is suppressed, and tolerance of environmental stress is bolstered. Diapausing insects pass through a stereotypic succession of eco-physiological phases termed “diapause development.” The phasing is varied in the literature, and the whole concept is sometimes criticized as being too artificial. Here we present the results of transcriptional profiling using custom microarrays representing 1,042 genes in the drosophilid fly, Chymomyza costata. Fully grown, third-instar larvae programmed for diapause by a photoperiodic (short-day) signal were assayed as they traversed the diapause developmental program. When analyzing the gradual dynamics in the transcriptomic profile, we could readily distinguish distinct diapause developmental phases associated with induction/initiation, maintenance, cold acclimation, and termination by cold or by photoperiodic signal. Accordingly, each phase is characterized by a specific pattern of gene expression, supporting the physiological relevance of the concept of diapause phasing. Further, we have dissected in greater detail the changes in transcript levels of elements of several signaling pathways considered critical for diapause regulation. The phase of diapause termination is associated with enhanced transcript levels in several positive elements stimulating direct development (the 20-hydroxyecdysone pathway: Ecr, Shd, Broad; the Wnt pathway: basket, c-jun) that are countered by up-regulation in some negative elements (the insulin-signaling pathway: Ilp8, PI3k, Akt; the target of rapamycin pathway: Tsc2 and 4EBP; the Wnt pathway: shaggy). We speculate such up-regulations may represent the early steps linked to termination of diapause programming.

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“…Of the few studies to examine these effects, some have reported a significant relationship between milder winters and delayed emergence (Bale & Hayward, 2010;Stålhandske et al, 2015;Forrest, 2016;Lehmann et al, 2017). Of the few studies to examine these effects, some have reported a significant relationship between milder winters and delayed emergence (Bale & Hayward, 2010;Stålhandske et al, 2015;Forrest, 2016;Lehmann et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local and regional climate variables driving spring phenology of tortricid pests: a 36 year study

Pak

Biddinger

Bjørnstad

2018

Ecological Entomology

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1. Insect phenology is driven by local climate variables, most notably temperature. Increased warming has been linked to advancements in critical phenophases such as the spring flight of reproductive adults in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.A.2. Local climate is governed by the fluctuations of large-scale climate oscillations. In the northern hemisphere, both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) control the local autumn and winter severity. Low NAO and AO indices are associated with colder autumns and winters, which can delay spring phenology.3. In this study, 36 years of data from experimental fruit orchards in Biglerville, Pennsylvania, were used to run partial least-squares regressions in order to determine the climate variables related to the spring phenology of five tortricid pest species.4. The phenology of the tortricid pests did not advance, even though there was evidence of warming at the research site.5. Spring temperatures were found to be the most significant climate variables in determining the timing of the spring flights. However, autumn-winter temperatures were also important.6. For the NAO and the AO, it was found that these oscillations affected the tortricid moths by influencing autumn-winter conditions. The oscillations of the NAO and AO can obscure long-term changes in phenology.7. These findings suggest that the inclusion of large-scale climate oscillations can provide important insights into how climate conditions can influence insect phenology, and presents an opportunity for improving the ability to forecast spring emergence.

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Complex responses of insect phenology to climate change

Cited by 304 publications

References 62 publications

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

Conceptual framework of the eco-physiological phases of insect diapause development justified by transcriptomic profiling

Local and regional climate variables driving spring phenology of tortricid pests: a 36 year study

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