Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

I Abstract Spatial synchrony refers to coincident changes in the abundance or other time-varying characteristics of geographically disjunct populations. This phenomenon has been documented in the dynamics of species representing a variety of taxa and ecological roles. Synchrony may arise from three primary mechanisms: (a) dispersal among populations, reducing the size of relatively large populations and increasing relatively small ones; (b) congruent dependence of population dynamics on a synchronous exogenous random factor such as temperature or rainfall, a phenomenon known as the "Moran effect"; and (c) trophic interactions with populations of other species that are themselves spatially synchronous or mobile. Identification of the causes of synchrony is often difficult. In addition to intraspecific synchrony, there are many examples of synchrony among populations of different species, the causes of which are similarly complex and difficult to identify. Furthermore, some populations may exhibit complex spatial dynamics such as spiral waves and chaos. Statistical tests based on phase coherence and/or time-lagged spatial correlation are required to characterize these more complex patterns of spatial dynamics fully.

Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.