“…Though the consistency of BIC for Gaussian HMMs has not been completely established (Cappe et al, 2005; Finesso, 1990; Ryden, 1995), it has been shown through simulations that BIC empirically tends to select the correct model when the sample size is large but could give highly variable results when the sample size is small or moderate (Celeux and Durand, 2008; Ryden, 1995; MacKAY, 2002; Watkins and Yang, 2005; Frühwirth-Schnatter, 2006; Keribin, 2000). In the context of FRET trajectories, the variability of BIC for HMMs has also been observed (van de Meent et al, 2014; Blanco and Walter, 2010; Keller et al, 2014). The general recommendation in the statistics literature and in the FRET literature for the state-selection of HMM is to use BIC as a first step of preliminary analysis and then assess the selection result based on scientific and experimental insight (McKinney et al, 2006; Greenfeld et al, 2012; Bulla et al, 2010; Keller et al, 2014; Celeux and Durand, 2008).…”