Complexity and non‐linearity in earth surface processes – concepts, methods and applications

Temme, A.J.A.M.; Keiler, Margreth; Karssenberg, Derek; Lang, Andreas

doi:10.1002/esp.3712

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…In contrast to the CHANS approach, socio-hydrological models are based on system dynamics, and simulate system behavior mainly in a lumped way (that is, a way that is not spatially explicit). In geomorphology, similar tendencies in capturing and analyzing the co-evolution of socio-natural systems and the effects of human interventions on river morphology can be observed [167][168][169]. Hydrologic and geomorphic drivers in flood hazard evolution are compared by Slater et al [170].…”

Section: Prospective Approaches In Modeling Co-evolutionary Dynamics mentioning

confidence: 93%

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Zischg

2018

Systems

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Floodplains, as seen from the flood risk management perspective, are composed of co-evolving natural and human systems. Both flood processes (that is, the hazard) and the values at risk (that is, settlements and infrastructure built in hazardous areas) are dynamically changing over time and influence each other. These changes influence future risk pathways. The co-evolution of all of these drivers for changes in flood risk could lead to emergent behavior. Hence, complexity theory and systems science can provide a sound theoretical framework for flood risk management in the 21st century. This review aims at providing an entry point for modelers in flood risk research to consider floodplains as complex adaptive systems. For the systems science community, the actual problems and approaches in the flood risk research community are summarized. Finally, an outlook is given on potential future coupled component modeling approaches that aims at bringing together both disciplines.

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Section: Prospective Approaches In Modeling Co-evolutionary Dynamics mentioning

confidence: 93%

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Zischg

2018

Systems

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“…This effect is nonetheless expected because landslides typically change the surface morphology (Schuster and Highland 2003), the sediment or regolith properties (Chen 2009), the vegetation (Singh et al 2014) and the slope angle (van Westen et al 2006), which are all factors that change landslide susceptibility. If true, such importance of landslide history for landslides susceptibility would be a form of path dependency (a concept from complexity theory (Phillips 2006;Temme et al 2015))-indicating that the history of the landsliding process affects its future through one or more legacy effects. A likely reason for the lack of attention for quantifying the effect of earlier landslides on future landslides is that multi-temporal landslide inventories are very difficult to obtain (Atkinson and Massari 1998;Brenning 2005) and high-resolution multi-temporal datasets of intrinsic properties are virtually absent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory

Samia¹,

Temme

Bregt³

et al. 2016

Landslides

151

109

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Landslides are a major category of natural disasters, causing loss of lives, livelihoods and property. The critical roles played by triggering (such as extreme rainfall and earthquakes), and intrinsic factors (such as slope steepness, soil properties and lithology) have previously successfully been recognized and quantified using a variety of qualitative, quantitative and hybrid methods in a wide range of study sites. However, available data typically do not allow to investigate the effect that earlier landslides have on intrinsic factors and hence on follow-up landslides. Therefore, existing methods cannot account for the potentially complex susceptibility changes caused by landslide events. In this study, we used a substantially different alternative approach to shed light on the potential effect of earlier landslides using a multitemporal dataset of landslide occurrence containing 17 time slices. Spatial overlap and the time interval between landslides play key roles in our work. We quantified the degree to which landslides preferentially occur in locations where landslides occurred previously, how long such an effect is noticeable, and how landslides are spatially associated over time. We also investigated whether overlap with previous landslides causes differences in landslide geometric properties. We found that overlap among landslides demonstrates a clear legacy effect (path dependency) that has influence on the landslide affected area. Landslides appear to cause greater susceptibility for follow-up landslides over a period of about 10 years. Follow-up landslides are on average larger and rounder than landslides that do not follow earlier slides. The effect of earlier landslides on follow-up landslides has implications for understanding of the landslides evolution and the assessment of landslide susceptibility.

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“…This model uses a finite difference method to simulate the temporal evolution of river profile elevations while using an analytical solution to calculate the location of the water divide from discretized river nodes. Similar models were successfully applied to refine answers as to what extent climate controls the characteristics of drainage networks and landscapes in general [ Moon et al ., ; Ferrier et al ., ; Temme et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Keeping the edge: A numerical method that avoids knickpoint smearing when solving the stream power law

Campforts

Govers

2015

JGR Earth Surface

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The stream power equation is commonly used to model river incision into bedrock. Although specific conditions allow an analytical approach, finite difference methods (FDMs) are most frequently used to solve this equation. FDMs inevitably suffer from numerical smearing which may affect their suitability for transient river incision modeling. We propose the use of a finite volume method (FVM) which is total variation diminishing (TVD) to simulate river incision in a more accurate way. The TVD_FVM is designed to simulate sharp discontinuities, making it very suitable to simulate river incision pulses. We show that the TVD_FVM is much better capable of preserving propagating knickpoints than FDMs, using Niagara Falls as an example. Comparison of numerical results obtained using the TVD_FVM with analytical solutions shows a very good agreement. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with parameter calibration is dramatically reduced when the TVD_FVM is applied. The high accuracy of the TVD_FDM allows correct simulation of transient incision waves as a consequence of older uplift pulses. This implies that the TVD_FVM is much more suitable than FDMs to reconstruct regional uplift histories from current river profile morphology and to simulate river incision processes in general.

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Complexity and non‐linearity in earth surface processes – concepts, methods and applications

Cited by 15 publications

References 37 publications

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory

Keeping the edge: A numerical method that avoids knickpoint smearing when solving the stream power law

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