Complexity and theories of change in international politics

Abstract

This article examines how the principles of complex systems can illuminate recurring mechanisms of change in theories of international relations. It applies the logic of complex systems to two specific puzzles in international politicsthe problem of theorizing change in structural realism, and the dynamics of cross-border democratic diffusion. In the first case, by shifting the analysis of anarchy's consequences from state behavior to state attributes, complex systems can illustrate the sources of domestic and international transformations embedded in structural theories. This approach offers a way to think about democratization as a global process of interstate competition and socialization driven by the pressures of anarchy. In the second case, the principles of co-adaptation in complex systems can help reframe diffusion not as the unilinear spread of democracy but as the interplay of self-reinforcing and self-dampening dynamics, whose interaction shapes both actor expectations and democratic outcomes. In both cases, complex systems serve a limited but useful role; although not conducive to theory creation, the approach provides a useful analytical prism for examining patterns of change and continuity in global processes, and highlights concrete ways of improving models of transformations in international politics.

Governing Complexity: Design Principles for the Governance of Complex Global Catastrophic Risks

“…Rather than implying ungovernable change and inherent unpredictability, restricted complexity emphasizes contingent but systemic effects that produce regularities, recognizable patterns, and recurring mechanisms ( Geyer 2003 ). This approach echoes ongoing scholarly efforts to position complexity theory as a “middle ground,” capable of accommodating different epistemological and methodological pathways toward better explanations of global political transformation ( Gunitsky 2013 , 57).…”

Political realism and epistemic democracy: An international perspective

“…As noted by Seva Gunitsky (2013: 37), the circumstances of international politics mold state attributes as well as behaviors. The spread of democracy around the world could thus be understood precisely as a development driven by its ability to satisfy the BCD: “a global process of interstate competition and socialization shaped by the imperatives of anarchy ” (Gunitsky, 2013: 37).…”

“…As noted by Seva Gunitsky (2013: 37), the circumstances of international politics mold state attributes as well as behaviors. The spread of democracy around the world could thus be understood precisely as a development driven by its ability to satisfy the BCD: “a global process of interstate competition and socialization shaped by the imperatives of anarchy ” (Gunitsky, 2013: 37). Over the past century, democracies thrived and multiplied in the international system because they proved their competitive edge in the modern global economy as well as in major world events including the First and Second World Wars and the Cold War, thereby inspiring countries that had been non-democratic to “emulate their success” and become democratic (Gunitsky: 2013: 47).…”

Democratic Waves in Historical Perspective

“…50Gunitsky 2013. This dynamic manifested itself in the Arab revolutions, where initial successes were followed by increasingly forceful efforts by autocrats to repress the uprisings.…”