Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

Identification of mitigation and adaptation strategies in any situation has to be a well informed decision. This decision not only has to be based on quantifiable data (e.g. amounts or concentrations of emissions), but it also needs to consider spatial aspects such as the source of emissions, the impact of policies on the population or the identification of responsible parties. As such, it is important that the decisions are based on accurate reports made by experts in the field. Many data are available to the experts, and combining this data tends to increase the inherently contained uncertainty. Novel operations that exhibit a lower increase of uncertainty can yield outcomes that contain less uncertainty, which subsequently improves the accuracy of the resulting reports. At the same time, the decisionmakers are confronted with different reports, and the comparison of the contained spatial aspects requires combining the data, which exhibits similar issues relating to uncertainty. With data usually represented in gridded structures, comparing them often requires a process called regridding: this is the process of mapping one grid onto a second grid, a process which increases spatial uncertainty. In this contribution, a novel regridding algorithm is presented. While mainly intended as a preprocessing tool for the experts, it is also applicable for supporting the comparison of gridded datasets as used by decision-makers. In the context of this article, a grid can be irregular, allowing the presented algorithm to also be used for remapping a grid onto, e.g. administrative borders or vice versa. The presented algorithm for regridding is a modification that is generally applicable on spatial disaggregation algorithms. It was developed in parallel with a novel method that uses artificial intelligence (in the form of fuzzy rule-based systems) to involve proxy data to obtain better results, and it will be demonstrated using this approach for spatial disaggregation. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change to perform regridding using an algorithm designed for spatial disaggregation is detailed in this article and the performance of the combination with the artificial intelligent system for disaggregation is illustrated by means of an example.

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A use-chain model to deal with uncertainties. A focus on GHG emission inventories

Tonin

Notte

Nocera

2016

Carbon Management

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The measurements necessary to estimate GHG emission inventories create uncertainty.\ud Currently emission inventories are built on statistical data, parameters and some “other information.” Investigating the role of the latter has driven this analysis, since it has proven to be a key concept in understanding and reducing uncertainty. This article proposes a use-chain model to guide researchers in choosing the appropriate available method to deal with uncertainty. The model involves three main parts: data production, data analysis and data use. The findings suggest, first, that statistical techniques, although crucial, do not represent the only possible way to reduce uncertainty; and, second, that the appropriate way to deal with uncertainty depends on whether one is dealing with data production or data analysis or data use, each characterized by a different degree of specificity and by a different influence of the surrounding context

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Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

Cited by 4 publications

References 22 publications

Optimal Parameter Ranges in Fuzzy Inference Systems, Applied to Spatial Data

Optimal Parameter Ranges in Fuzzy Inference Systems, Applied to Spatial Data

Solving the general map overlay problem using a fuzzy inference system designed for spatial disaggregation

A use-chain model to deal with uncertainties. A focus on GHG emission inventories

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