Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, Hendrik; Schädler, Gerd

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2061-5

Cited by 73 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Collectively, these studies highlight the important interacting effects of chronic drought and acute heat events, both of which are expected to increase in Mediterranean and other climate regions in the coming decades (Andrys et al 2017). A growing body of recent climatological studies examining compound climate events have shown that (1) extreme drought and heat events are correlated worldwide, and (2) their dependence gets stronger with increased atmospheric warming (Zcheischler and Seneviratne 2017), (3) the frequency of heatwavecompounded drought events are increasing (Mazdiyasni and AghaKouchak 2015), and (4) climate models predict heatwave-compounded drought events to become common by 2050 in certain regions (Sedlmeier et al 2018). Given these findings, even in the absence of change to precipitation patterns, atmospheric warming alone will drive more frequent and severe heatwave-compounded drought events, with significant impacts to trees ecosystems (Williams et al 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chronic historical drought legacy exacerbates tree mortality and crown dieback during acute heatwave-compounded drought

Matusick

Ruthrof

Kala

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Globally, combinations of drought and warming are driving widespread tree mortality and crown dieback. Yet thresholds triggering either tree mortality or crown dieback remain uncertain, particularly with respect to two issues: (i) the degree to which heat waves, as an acute stress, can trigger mortality, and (ii) the degree to which chronic historical drought can have legacy effects on these processes. Using forest study sites in southwestern Australia that experienced dieback associated with a short-term drought with a heatwave (heatwave-compounded drought) in 2011 and span a gradient in long-term precipitation (LTP) change, we examined the potential for chronic historical drought to amplify tree mortality or crown dieback during a heatwave-compounded drought event for the dominant overstory species Eucalyptus marginata and Corymbia calophylla. We show pronounced legacy effects associated with chronically reduced LTP (1951LTP ( -1980LTP ( versus 1981LTP ( -2010 at the tree level in both study species. When comparing areas experiencing 7.0% and 11.5% decline in LTP, the probability of tree mortality increased from low (<0.10) to high (>0.55) in both species, and probability of crown dieback increased from high (0.74) to nearly complete (0.96) in E. marginata. Results from beta regression analysis at the stand-level confirmed tree-level results, illustrating a significant inverse relationship between LTP reduction and either tree mortality (F=10.39, P=0.0073) or dieback (F=54.72, P<0.0001). Our findings quantify chronic climate legacy effects during a well-documented tree mortality and crown dieback event that is specifically associated with an heatwave-compounded drought. Our results highlight how insights into both acute heatwavecompounded drought effects and chronic drought legacies need to be integrated into assessments of how drought and warming together trigger broad-scale tree mortality and crown dieback events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chronic historical drought legacy exacerbates tree mortality and crown dieback during acute heatwave-compounded drought

Matusick

Ruthrof

Kala

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Assessment of the climate change impact on compound extremes in a hydroclimatic framework is of particular importance for adaptation measures due to their tendency to have a larger impact than an individual extreme [3]. Efforts in assessing the variation of the compound extreme in the future have been growing based on climate projections [28,77,87]. For example, an overall increase of the number of incidences of compound drought and extreme heat is shown for the projection period (2021-2050) over central Europe [28].…”

Section: Compound Extremes Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Compound extremes, which are also referred to as simultaneous, concurrent, or coincident extremes (e.g., the concurrence or succession of multiple extremes/events), may exacerbate an adverse impact, leading to larger impacts to human society and the environment than those from individual extremes alone [24][25][26]. The past decade has witnessed an upsurge in studies of compound extremes, such as drought and heat wave (or low precipitation and high temperature) at different regions including Europe (2003 and 2015), Russia (2010), and California in the U.S. (2014) [4,[27][28][29][30][31]. For example, the recent 2012 extreme drought in the central U.S. with record deficit in precipitation was accompanied by high temperatures during the May-August growing season, which significantly affected crop yields [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound Extremes in Hydroclimatology: A Review

Hao

Singh

Hao

2018

Water

123

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Extreme events, such as drought, heat wave, cold wave, flood, and extreme rainfall, have received increasing attention in recent decades due to their wide impacts on society and ecosystems. Meanwhile, the compound extremes (i.e., the simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple extremes at single or multiple locations) may exert even larger impacts on society or the environment. Thus, the past decade has witnessed an increasing interest in compound extremes. In this study, we review different approaches for the statistical characterization and modeling of compound extremes in hydroclimatology, including the empirical approach, multivariate distribution, the indicator approach, quantile regression, and the Markov Chain model. The limitation in the data availability to represent extremes and lack of flexibility in modeling asymmetric/tail dependences of multiple variables/events are among the challenges in the statistical characterization and modeling of compound extremes. Major future research endeavors include probing compound extremes through both observations with improved data availability (and statistical model development) and model simulations with improved representation of the physical processes to mitigate the impacts of compound extremes.

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“…Previous studies mostly evaluated different properties of droughts and hot events in isolation. Recent decades have witnessed a suite of compound dry and hot events, such as the 2003 heatwave in Europe and the 2010 heatwave in Russia that were characterized by concurrent droughts (Sedlmeier et al 2017). Numerous studies have shown severe impacts of compound dry and hot events on agricultural production, ecosystems, and human society ( .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dry-hot magnitude index: a joint indicator for compound event analysis

Hao

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Weather and climate extremes, such as droughts and heat waves, have been commonly characterized by different properties, including frequency, duration, and magnitude. The magnitude is among the most important properties that determine the impact of extremes. Compound dry and hot events may cause detrimental impacts on water resources, energy security, crop production and food security, and have been receiving increasing attention in recent years. Although extensive studies have been conducted to investigate the magnitude of individual droughts or hot extremes, evaluation of the magnitude of compound dry and hot events has received limited attention. In this study, we develop a dry-hot magnitude index (DHMI) to characterize the magnitude of compound dry and hot events, using monthly precipitation and daily maximum temperature, which takes into account both dry and hot conditions. The DHMI is used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the magnitude of compound dry and hot events in China during summer (June, July, and August) for the period of 1961-2013. Results show that high magnitudes of compound dry and hot events mainly occur in northeastern and southwestern China, with higher magnitudes mostly observed in recent decades since the 1990s. The proposed magnitude index has potential to be a useful tool for analyzing compound dry and hot events and their impacts.

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Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

Cited by 73 publications

References 29 publications

Chronic historical drought legacy exacerbates tree mortality and crown dieback during acute heatwave-compounded drought

Chronic historical drought legacy exacerbates tree mortality and crown dieback during acute heatwave-compounded drought

Compound Extremes in Hydroclimatology: A Review

Dry-hot magnitude index: a joint indicator for compound event analysis

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