Comprehensive risk evaluation of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines using a fuzzy Petri net model

Guo, Yanbao; Meng, Xiaoli; Wang, Deguo; Meng, Tao; Liu, Shuhai; He, Ren

doi:10.1016/j.jngse.2016.04.052

Cited by 116 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…• public's legal and moral awareness about OGP projects, vehicle accidents and lawlessness (Peng et al, 2016) • thieves, terrorism and sabotage, people's poverty and education levels in OGP areas, improper inspection & maintenance, limited warning signs, corruption, little research about this topic, lack of proper training, operational errors, stakeholders are not paying proper attention, lack of risk registration, weather conditions and natural disasters, inadequate risk management approaches, weak ability to identify & monitor the threats, corrosion and lack of anti-corrosive action, and shortage of IT services & modern equipment (Nnadi et al, 2014) • leakage of sensitive information (Wu et al, 2015), threats to staff and the opportunity to sabotage exposed pipelines -"aboveground pipelines" (Rowland, 2010) • insecure areas, hacker attacks on the operating or control systems and the pipeline is easy to access (Srivastava and Gupta, 2010) • conflict over land ownership (Macdonald and Cosham, 2005) and animal accidents (Mubin and Mubin, 2008) • geological risks, improper safety regulations and design, construction and material defects (Guo et al, 2016).…”

Section: Identifying the Risk Factors (Rfs) And Risk Mitigation Methomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The survey was distributed online and it targeted the owners and clients, researchers and students, consultants, planners and designers, construction team members, and operators in Iraq's OGP projects. There are many studies about assessing RFs in OGPs by conducting questionnaire surveys, interviews and ascertaining experts' judgements, like (Guo et al, 2016;Rowland, 2010;Wu et al, 2015), yet such studies have not analyzed the RFs based on the stakeholders' roles in the projects. However, understanding the stakeholders' perceptions based on their experience is more important than just gaining their perception of OGPs because different groups of stakeholders might have different views about pipeline failure, which reflects their roles in the projects.…”

Section: Identifying the Risk Factors (Rfs) And Risk Mitigation Methomentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analyzing Stakeholders' Perceptions of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects

Kraidi

Shah

Matipa

et al. 2019

Period. Polytech. Arch.

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Currently, there are enormous Risk Factors (RFs) threating the safety of Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) at all stages of projects. However, there is a lack of information about the root causes of pipeline failures and an absence of trusted data about the "probability and severity" levels of the RFs; this hinders the risk management in such projects. To improve the safety level of OGPs, this paper aims to explore stakeholders' perceptions about pipeline failures issues to analyze the RFs and recommend effective Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs). Due to the lack of trusted data about the RFs and RMMs, this paper started with extensive investigations to identify the critical RFs and the applied RMMs in OGP projects in different circumstances. The findings of these investigations were used to design a questionnaire survey, which was distributed to analyze the "probability and severity" levels of the RFs and evaluate the "usability and effectiveness" degrees of the suggested RMMs. The survey results revealed that RFs related to Third-Party Disruption (TPD) including sabotage and terrorism, corruption and insecure areas are the most severe RFs. Additionally, based on the survey some RMMs such as anti-corrosion efforts, laying the pipelines underground and using technologically advanced risk-monitoring systems were found to be effective RMMs. These results were found to be varied based on the stakeholders' occupation in the projects; for example, the overall survey results indicated that terrorism and sabotage is the most critical RF, while the planners and the researchers identified corruption as the most critical one. It was also observed that using anti-corrosion measures such as isolation and cathodic protection would be the most effective RMM, while the other stakeholders have different perceptions like moving the pipelines underground an advanced risk-monitoring system are the most effective RMMs as indicated by the consultant, planner or designer and researches respectively.

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Section: Identifying the Risk Factors (Rfs) And Risk Mitigation Methomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Identifying the Risk Factors (Rfs) And Risk Mitigation Methomentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Stakeholders' Perceptions of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects

Kraidi

Shah

Matipa

et al. 2019

Period. Polytech. Arch.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…To assess the quantitative risk of oil pipeline failure, the combination of subjective (which is analytic hierarchy process) and objective (which is entropy method) weighting methods can be used [Guo et al, 2016]. It was proposed to combine entropy weight method with grey clustering method, which can divide risk indexes in several groups according to whitenization weight function [Hu et al, 2017]. It is noted the quantitative risk assessment technique is one of the most credible.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of anthropogenic factor of accident risk on the main oil pipeline Pascuales - Cuenca in Ecuador

Zambrano¹,

Kovshov²,

Lyubin³

2018

J Appl Eng Science

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The pipeline infrastructure of Latin America countries, including the Republic of Ecuador, has a signifi cant accident potential. Accidence rate is facilitated by the diversity of natural and climatic conditions in the region, military-political instability in its separate parts, and imperfection of the standards for the production of pipes and equipment.The technical condition of the pipeline systems operated in Latin America for 15-20 years is imperfect. Depreciation or replacement of spent equipment and elements of the pipeline infrastructure is not being carried out at an adequate pace. Ecuador, for example, has a stable dynamics of increasing accidents at pipeline infrastructure facilities. Therefore, an assessment of the risk of the condition of the main pipelines should be carried out. Anthropogenic risk is one of the most important accident factors (50 % of all risk on main oil pipelines in Ecuador). To evaluate it, the methodology of Federal Safety Manual is proposed. The anthropogenic risk is calculated for 3 main sections of Pascuales-Cuenca pipeline, which supports with oil the provinces of Cañar, Loja, Zamora Chinchipe and Morona Santiago. For the foothill area, the specifi c probability of accidents is the most, and for the coastal and fl at areas less and equals to 0.15 and 0.14, respectively. The performed accident analysis will allow taking the necessary measuresto maintain the pipeline in working condition.

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“…Gao et al proposed a parallel reasoning algorithm using max-algebra, and they presented an improved reasoning algorithm based on the novel fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN) to represent and reason the KBS with the negative literals [30,31]. In addition, there are other similar algorithms that have been proposed by other researchers [32][33][34]. Although fault diagnosis algorithms using FPN have been known to be successful, the existing algorithms are facing an enormous challenge called state explosion issue where the scale of FPN would increase with the rapid growth of the scale of KBS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bidirectional Diagnosis Algorithm of Fuzzy Petri Net Using Inner-Reasoning-Path

Zhou

Gui

et al. 2018

Symmetry

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Fuzzy Petri net (FPN) is a powerful tool to execute the fault diagnosis function for various industrial applications. One of the most popular approaches for fault diagnosis is to calculate the corresponding algebra forms which record flow information and three parameters of value of all places and transitions of the FPN model. However, with the rapid growth of the complexity of the real system, the scale of the corresponding FPN is also increased sharply. It indicates that the complexity of the fault diagnosis algorithm is also raised due to the increased scale of vectors and matrix. Focusing on this situation, a bidirectional adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is presented in this article to reduce the complexity of the fault diagnosis process via removing irrelevant places and transitions of the large-scale FPN, followed by the correctness and algorithm complexity of the proposed approach that are also discussed in detail. A practical example is utilized to show the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed method. The results of the experiments illustrated that the proposed algorithm owns the ability to simplify the inference process and to reduce the algorithm complexity due to the removal of unnecessary places and transitions in the reasoning path of the appointed output place.

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Comprehensive risk evaluation of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines using a fuzzy Petri net model

Cited by 116 publications

References 29 publications

Analyzing Stakeholders' Perceptions of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects

Analyzing Stakeholders' Perceptions of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects

Assessment of anthropogenic factor of accident risk on the main oil pipeline Pascuales - Cuenca in Ecuador

A Bidirectional Diagnosis Algorithm of Fuzzy Petri Net Using Inner-Reasoning-Path

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