Analyzing Stakeholders' Perceptions of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects

Abstract

Currently, there are enormous Risk Factors (RFs) threating the safety of Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) at all stages of projects. However, there is a lack of information about the root causes of pipeline failures and an absence of trusted data about the "probability and severity" levels of the RFs; this hinders the risk management in such projects. To improve the safety level of OGPs, this paper aims to explore stakeholders' perceptions about pipeline failures issues to analyze the RFs and recommend effective Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs). Due to the lack of trusted data about the RFs and RMMs, this paper started with extensive investigations to identify the critical RFs and the applied RMMs in OGP projects in different circumstances. The findings of these investigations were used to design a questionnaire survey, which was distributed to analyze the "probability and severity" levels of the RFs and evaluate the "usability and effectiveness" degrees of the suggested RMMs. The survey results revealed that RFs related to Third-Party Disruption (TPD) including sabotage and terrorism, corruption and insecure areas are the most severe RFs. Additionally, based on the survey some RMMs such as anti-corrosion efforts, laying the pipelines underground and using technologically advanced risk-monitoring systems were found to be effective RMMs. These results were found to be varied based on the stakeholders' occupation in the projects; for example, the overall survey results indicated that terrorism and sabotage is the most critical RF, while the planners and the researchers identified corruption as the most critical one. It was also observed that using anti-corrosion measures such as isolation and cathodic protection would be the most effective RMM, while the other stakeholders have different perceptions like moving the pipelines underground an advanced risk-monitoring system are the most effective RMMs as indicated by the consultant, planner or designer and researches respectively.

Analysing Delay Impact From Potential Risk Factors on Project Delivery of Oil and Gas Pipeline: A Case Study in Iraq

“…In this paper, the process of identifying and assessing the RFs in OGP projects in Iraq was carried out via an extensive literature review [29] . The probability and severity levels of the RFs were assessed via engaging with 198 participants who have real experience about the RFs and their degree of impact on OGP projects in Iraq [4], [5], [30] . The results of the survey were used as inputs for the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) toolbox in MATLAB, which was used to calculate the index values of the RFs [31], [32], [33] .…”

A Risk Treatment Strategy Model for Oil Pipeline Accidents Based on a Bayesian Decision Network Model

“…However, pipeline accidents may result in catastrophic consequences [ 1 ], including injury and death, economic loss, and environmental pollution. Many risk factors may lead to or influence oil pipeline accidents during the incident evolution process [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]. Some risk factors can be controlled with a risk treatment strategy.…”

“…Physical simulation methods based on computational fluid mechanics, such as oil leakage models [ 10 ], thermal radiation models for fires, and explosion overpressure models for vapor cloud explosions [ 11 ], can accurately and quantitatively simulate dynamic consequences [ 12 , 13 ]. Statistical methods based on cases [ 3 , 4 , 5 ] or expert experiences [ 14 ] can be used to calculate the occurrence probability of initial events [ 15 ] and the conditional probabilities of risk factors. The weights of diverse consequences can be obtained using the analytical hierarchy process method [ 16 , 17 ] or fuzzy logic theory, and these methods involve fuzzy comprehensive evaluation [ 18 ], intuitionistic fuzzy sets [ 19 ], and fuzzy inference systems [ 3 , 4 , 5 , 20 ].…”

“…Statistical methods based on cases [ 3 , 4 , 5 ] or expert experiences [ 14 ] can be used to calculate the occurrence probability of initial events [ 15 ] and the conditional probabilities of risk factors. The weights of diverse consequences can be obtained using the analytical hierarchy process method [ 16 , 17 ] or fuzzy logic theory, and these methods involve fuzzy comprehensive evaluation [ 18 ], intuitionistic fuzzy sets [ 19 ], and fuzzy inference systems [ 3 , 4 , 5 , 20 ]. Individual risk [ 21 ] and social risk [ 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 ] can be obtained by integrating physical simulation methods with the vulnerability of hazard-affected carriers in specific cases.…”

Quantitative Analysis of the Delay Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects

“…1-Firstly, the IRFs were identified via an extensive literature review about the risks in OGP projects worldwide in order to overcome the problem of data scarcity about the IRFs in OGP projects in Iraq (Kraidi et al, 2017 and2019a). 2-The Risk Probability (RP) and Risk Severity (RS) levels of the IRFs were identified via conducting a questionnaire survey of the stakeholders in OGP projects in Iraq (Kraidi et al 2019b). 3-Finally, the Risk Index (RI) values of the IRFs were estimated using the fuzzy inference system toolbox in MATLAB (Kraidi et al, 2019c(Kraidi et al, , 2018.…”