A Risk Treatment Strategy Model for Oil Pipeline Accidents Based on a Bayesian Decision Network Model

Abstract

Risk treatment is an effective way to reduce the risk of oil pipeline accidents. Many risk analysis and treatment strategies and models have been established based on the event tree method, bow-tie method, Bayesian network method, and other methods. Considering the characteristics of the current models, a risk treatment strategy model for oil pipeline accidents based on Bayesian decision network (BDNs) is proposed in this paper. First, the quantitative analysis method used in the Event-Evolution-Bayesian model (EEB model) is used for risk analysis. Second, the consequence weights and initial event likelihoods are added to the risk analysis model, and the integrated risk is obtained. Third, the risk treatment strategy model is established to achieve acceptable risk with optimal resources. The risk treatment options are added to the Bayesian network (BN) risk analysis model as the decision nodes and utility nodes. In this approach, the BN risk analysis model can be transformed into a risk treatment model based on BDNs. Compared to other models, this model can not only identify the risk factors comprehensively and illustrate the incident evolution process clearly, but also can support diverse risk treatment strategies for specific cases, such as to reduce the integrated risk to meet acceptable criterion or to balance the benefit and cost of an initiative. Furthermore, the risk treatment strategy can be updated as the risk context changes.

Characteristics and Statistical Analysis of Large and above Hazardous Chemical Accidents in China from 2000 to 2020

“…This study stands in the perspective of macro-system risk analysis by collecting historical data and calculating based on the frequency (probability) of occurrence of the corresponding risk factors. The TOPSIS method has some advantages over the N-K model [ 42 ] commonly used in multi-factor data analysis: The N-K model does not consider the impact of time advancement on the hazardous materials management system, and the focus of its examination is on the risk situation in the whole system within a certain period (usually determined by the managers or scholars according to the calculation needs) [ 43 ]. Therefore, when collecting historical data, it is only necessary to count the number of incidents that occurred in the system during a certain period; The entropy-TOPSIS-based model considers the development level of systematic risk in the DG management system during a certain period and focuses on the intensity and development level of subsystems.…”

“…The N-K model does not consider the impact of time advancement on the hazardous materials management system, and the focus of its examination is on the risk situation in the whole system within a certain period (usually determined by the managers or scholars according to the calculation needs) [ 43 ]. Therefore, when collecting historical data, it is only necessary to count the number of incidents that occurred in the system during a certain period;…”