Abstract. Let K = Q( √ −d) be an imaginary quadratic field and let Q( √ 3d) be the associated real quadratic field. Starting from the Cohen-Lenstra heuristics and Scholz's theorem, we make predictions for the behaviors of the 3-parts of the class groups of these two fields as d varies. We deduce heuristic predictions for the behavior of the Iwasawa λ-invariant for the cyclotomic Z 3 -extension of K and test them computationally.The Cohen-Lenstra heuristics [1] give predictions for frequencies of class numbers and class groups of number fields. In the following, we investigate a related situation and a more specific question:I. Are there heuristics for the Iwasawa lambda invariants, similar to those of Cohen and Lenstra for class groups of number fields? The λ 2 -invariants of imaginary quadratic fields are given by a simple formula of Ferrero [4] and Kida [5] and are correspondingly not suitable for a heuristic analysis. We therefore consider the first nontrivial case, namely the λ-invariant for the cyclotomic Z 3 -extension of an imaginary quadratic field K as K varies. When 3 does not split in K, the frequency of λ = 0 is easy to treat. We give a prediction for the frequency of λ = 1 in this case. We also compute numerical data that agrees fairly well with the prediction; however, it is well known that the convergence of empirical data to the CohenLenstra heuristics is quite slow, and we presumably have a similar slowness in the present situation. Therefore, any numerical agreement or disagreement cannot necessarily be regarded as decisive. We also collect data for the case when 3 splits in the imaginary quadratic field. In this case, we always have λ ≥ 1. It appears that the frequencies of a given λ are similar to those for λ − 1 in the nonsplit case. We regard this as pointing towards some type of theoretical model for λ heuristics, similar to the idea of weighting by the inverse of the size of automorphism groups in the Cohen-Lenstra setting.II. It was proved in [6] that if 3 splits in an imaginary quadratic field Q( √ −d) and if 3 divides the class number of Q( √ 3d), then λ ≥ 2. Since it might be suspected that λ tends to be small, this could indicate that 3 divides the class number of Q( √ 3d), with d ≡ 2 (mod 3), with less than the frequency predicted by CohenLenstra heuristics for class numbers of all real quadratic fields. Nevertheless, our numerical experiments do not indicate the presence of any such bias.In Section 9, we give some data for the distribution of λ 3 -invariants of imaginary quadratic fields Q( √ −d). As our analysis shows, it is natural to break into cases