Computational procedures of the evidence theory for interval and fuzzy assignments of the basic probability masses for focal elements

Abstract

The evidence theory is ascribed to a specific kind of uncertainty. In this theory, uncertainty refers to the fact that the element of our interest (the true world) may be included in subsets of other similar elements (possible worlds). In the original evidence theory, the estimates of the basic probability masses for the focal elements are given in an unambiguous form. In practice, to obtain such estimates is often difficult or even impossible. In such a situation, the relevant estimates are given in the interval or fuzzy form. The goal of the paper is to present and analyse the calculation procedures for determination of the belief functions and plausibility functions in the evidence theory for cases when the initial estimates are given in the interval or fuzzy form.

Subjective Probabilities Elicitation and Combination in Risk Assessments Problems

“…In [13], it is proposed to use the approach -the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) [14], with the help of which the process of subjective estimation of probabilities is reduced to a paired comparison of outcomes according to the degree of plausibility of their implementation. Additional information about AHP can also be found in [15].…”