Computationally Derived Models of Adversary Organizations

Kansal, Sangita; Abusharekh, Ashraf; Levis, Alexander H.

doi:10.1109/cisda.2007.368140

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Examples of agent-based computational models in support of political science reach back to McPhee's and Smith's 2 efforts to simulate voting systems, with Johnson 3 offering an excellent literature review of simulations in political science. Multidisciplinary and multi-model modeling and simulation have found uses in military applications as diverse as modeling terrorist and adversarial organizations 4,5 to US Air Force Operations Centers. 6,7 In the nuclear domain, researchers periodically turn to agent-based models (ABMs) 8 and often use statistical models, as discussed by Sawyer 9 and Li et al, 10 to monitor nuclear proliferation trends and make predictions, time influence nets (TINs), and colored Petri nets to model command and control organizations responsible for the use of nuclear weapons 11 and forecast the efficacy of effectsbased operations.…”

Section: Computational Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deterring the development and use of nuclear weapons: a multi-level modeling approach

Carley

Morgan

Lanham³

2017

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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We describe a multi-country, multi-stakeholder model for the accrual and use of nuclear weapons and illustrate the model's value for addressing nuclear weapon proliferation issues using a historic Pacific Rim scenario. We instantiate the agent-based dynamic network model for information and belief diffusion using data from subject matter experts and data mined from open source news documents. We present the techniques that supported model instantiation. A key feature of this model and these techniques is enabling rapid model re-use through the ability to instantiate at two levels: generically and for specific cases. We demonstrate these generic and specific cases using a scenario regarding North Korea's interest in nuclear weapons and the resulting impact on the Pacific Rim circa 2014, that is, prior to the fourth and fifth nuclear weapons tests by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. A key feature of this model is that it uses two levels of network interaction, the country level and the stakeholder level, thus supporting the inclusion of non-state actors and the assessment of complex scenarios. Using this model, we conducted virtual experiments in which we assessed the impact of alternative courses of action on the overall force posture and desire to develop and use nuclear weapons.

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Section: Computational Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deterring the development and use of nuclear weapons: a multi-level modeling approach

Carley

Morgan

Lanham³

2017

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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“…6 and 7 can be mathematically described using a Petri net with interactions defined in Remy et al [12]. See Fig.8 from Kansal et al [13]. The individual DM nodes receive either a signal from the external environment or from another DM node.…”

Section: Architecturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The RS stage then produces the output to the environment or to other organization members." [13].Using the theory outlined in Remy et al [12], CAESAR III uses the Lattice algorithm to generate feasible solutions that represent all possible architectures that meet a set of defined constraints. These solutions are represented as Ordinary Petri Nets.…”

Section: Architecturementioning

confidence: 99%

Resilient Organizational Architectures for Command and Control

Levis¹

2014

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The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing the burden, to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. REPORT DATE fDD-MM-VyyYj ABSTRACTA formal definition of organizational resilience is articulated in which the three stages of avoidance, survival, and recovery are included. Three measures of performance. Capacity, Tolerance, and Flexibility are considered and several computable measures for each are defined. A case study of the resilience of a Maritime Operations Center operating in a contested cyber environment illustrate the research results. In addition, an approach for integrating and synchronizing the planning by functional components was developed. Finally, a domain specific approach was developed for using meta-modeling and multi-modeling to address the evaluation the design of C2 organizations. 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER. Enter all contract numbers as they appear in the report, e.g. F33315-86-C-5169. SUBJECT TERMS5b. GRANT NUMBER. Enter all grant numbers as they appear in the report, e.g. AFOSR-82-1234. 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER.Enter all program element numbers as they appear in the report, e.g. 61101 A.5e. TASK NUMBER. Enter all task numbers as they appear in the report, e.g. 05; RF0330201; T4112.5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER. Enter all work unit numbers as they appear in the report, e.g. 001; AFAPL30480105. AUTHOR(S). Enter name(s) of person(s)responsible for writing the report, performing the research, or credited with the content of the report. The form of entry is the last name, first name, middle initial, and additional qualifiers separated by commas, e.g. Smith, Richard, J, Jr. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS{ES). Self-explanatory. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER.Enter all unique alphanumeric report numbers assigned by the performing organization, e.g. BRL-1234; AFWL-TR-85-4017-VOI-21-PT-2. " SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES).Enter the name and address of the organization(s) financially responsible for and monitoring the work. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S).Enter, if available, e.g. BRL, ARDEC, NADC. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S).Enter report number as assigned by the sponsoring/ monitoring agency, if available, e.g. BRL-TR-829; -215. The overall objectives of the effo...

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