Deterring the development and use of nuclear weapons: a multi-level modeling approach

Abstract

We describe a multi-country, multi-stakeholder model for the accrual and use of nuclear weapons and illustrate the model's value for addressing nuclear weapon proliferation issues using a historic Pacific Rim scenario. We instantiate the agent-based dynamic network model for information and belief diffusion using data from subject matter experts and data mined from open source news documents. We present the techniques that supported model instantiation. A key feature of this model and these techniques is enabling rapid model re-use through the ability to instantiate at two levels: generically and for specific cases. We demonstrate these generic and specific cases using a scenario regarding North Korea's interest in nuclear weapons and the resulting impact on the Pacific Rim circa 2014, that is, prior to the fourth and fifth nuclear weapons tests by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. A key feature of this model is that it uses two levels of network interaction, the country level and the stakeholder level, thus supporting the inclusion of non-state actors and the assessment of complex scenarios. Using this model, we conducted virtual experiments in which we assessed the impact of alternative courses of action on the overall force posture and desire to develop and use nuclear weapons.

Representing qualitative social science in computational models to aid reasoning under uncertainty: National security examples

“…The other methods covered include agent-based modeling 59 ; fuzzy-logic modeling 50 ; mixed qualitative methods, such as narrative analysis, counterfactual analysis, system diagrams, and general morphological analysis (GMA) 60 ; cultural transmission 61 ; and social-network methods in nuclear proliferation analysis. 62 We noted earlier in the paper the importance of system dynamics methods, summarized in a textbook. 21 A number of national security applications have been made with it over the years, as illustrated by a recent article modeling the dynamics of radicalization 63 using both system dynamics and multi-model methods.…”