Conceptual Model of Predictive Safety Management Methodology in Aviation

Abstract

Due to the continuous growth of air traffic and the development of aviation systems, the current safety management methodologies should be improved and upgraded. Safety management systems help aviation organizations to manage, maintain and increase safety efficiently. The focus of the research is on the development of the predictive safety management methodology to upgrade current reactive and proactive safety management methodologies and to improve the overall safety level in aviation organizations. Predictive methods are used in various aviation sectors (air navigation services, airport operations, airline operations) for planning purposes but not in the segment of safety management. Available examples of predictive methods were tested and analyzed. Time series decomposition methods were selected as most suited for implementation in aviation safety management. The paper explicitly emphasizes correlations between safety management methodologies in the sample aviation organization. The paper also shows how causal links among organizational and safety performance indicators can be detected, by developing causal models of mutual influences using causal modeling methods, on the sample organization. This research defined steps and tools of the conceptual model of predictive safety management methodology, which enables an organization to identify and mitigate future adverse events.

Case Review: The Action Plan for the Chicago Center Fire Accident: The Role of Leadership in Emergency Response

“…In the case of the Chicago Center Fire, the consequences were impactful due to the assumed security of the communication systems; nevertheless, it was breached by a single employee who had access to the service room (DOT OIG, 2015). Bartulović and Steiner (2020) propose the utilization of predictive analytics to ensure the safety of management systems in organizations concerning aviation. Meng et al (2020) state that the foundation of the contingency plan in emergency management should be the risk management system followed by prevention and control of the potential hazards.…”

Perspectives Regarding the Evolution of Aerospace Safety Management in Extreme Weather Conditions

“…Extreme weather conditions, particularly icing phenomena, present significant challenges in the aerospace field and require specific safety management measures (Bartulović & Steiner, 2023). Safety management in the aeronautical field regarding icing phenomena involves a systematic approach to identify, assess, and mitigate risks associated with ice formation on aircraft surfaces.…”

Correlations among Fatigue Indicators, Subjective Perception of Fatigue, and Workload Settings in Flight Operations

“…Previous research regarding causality and its variations has focused on causal time series analyses [53][54][55], the causes and origins of human error [56], assumptions and methods for turning observations into causal knowledge [57], the human perception of the relationship between cause and effect [58], the role that human factors play in major aviation accidents [59], the use of causal models to control and manage aircraft accident risk [60], graphical causal models that can serve as powerful tools for detecting interrelations between variables [61], and others. Recent studies have used causal modeling methods to identify causal relationships among aviation hazards in order to define efficient measures to prevent future hazards from turning into adverse events [14][15][16].…”

“…Recent studies focusing on developing predictive safety management methodologies in aviation have revealed new possibilities. A conceptual model of predictive safety management methodology was developed in [13]; this approach defines the steps and tools of predictive safety management, i.e., the usage of predictive (forecasting) and causal modeling methods [14][15][16] to identify potential hazards in aviation, as well as their causal relations. This can help define efficient mitigation measures to prevent or reduce the number of future hazards from turning into adverse events.…”