Conceptual Quantitative Model to Group Risks in Fast-Track Construction Projects

Martins, Claudia Garrido; Bogus, Susan M.; Valentin, Vanessa

doi:10.1061/9780784482421.064

Cited by 7 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…One of the reviewers did comment that the model would be limited for using it in practice because they do not perform these risk analyses. The results below, modified from [37], are consistent with these verification and validation steps.…”

Section: Model Verification and Validationsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…Summary of the statistics for the impact on total duration (ten simulation runs). Modified from [37]. The range values for the variation on the project total cost show no variation except for the range of maximum values (Figure 4).…”

Section: Overlapping Risk Impacts On Total Project Duration and Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Summary of the statistics for the impact on total duration (ten simulation runs). Modified from [37]. Figure 3.…”

Section: Overlapping Risk Impacts On Total Project Duration and Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ranking of the main overlapping risks impacting the total project duration or cost (ten simulation runs). Modified from [37]. Table 2 identifies the ranking of the main overlapping risks that caused the most variation in the mean values for the total project duration or cost among the ten simulation runs.…”

Section: Overlapping Risk Impacts On Total Project Duration and Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative Risk Assessment Model and Optimization in Infrastructure Fast-Track Construction Projects

2023

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The construction industry has extensively applied the fast-tracking approach to the demanding need for the fast delivery of infrastructure projects. However, the fast-track strategy might be threatened by distinctive risks or changes in risk characteristics that emerge when activities are overlapped (overlapping risks). This article proposes a risk assessment simulation model to quantify the economic impact of overlapping risks on fast-track infrastructure projects. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation and a proprietary engine solution for the optimization procedure. It quantifies the overlapping risk impacts in the project duration and cost that could originate in three different overlapping degrees and evaluates the optimal overlapping degree to reduce the impact of the overlapping risks. The model demonstration used a commercial renovation project. The results suggest that overlapping risks have a high potential impact on the total cost, although with a high probability of attaining the target duration. Eight top risks affected the total duration, cost, or both. The optimum overlapping to reduce the economic impact and achieve the target project duration combines different overlapping degrees. This study contribution is a model for fast-track projects considering overlapping risks, their impact characteristic as a distribution, and the potential relationship between these risks.

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Section: Model Verification and Validationsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Overlapping Risk Impacts On Total Project Duration and Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Summary of the statistics for the impact on total duration (ten simulation runs). Modified from [37]. Figure 3.…”

Section: Overlapping Risk Impacts On Total Project Duration and Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overlapping Risk Impacts On Total Project Duration and Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Quantitative Risk Assessment Model and Optimization in Infrastructure Fast-Track Construction Projects

2023

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“…There are various definitions of rework in the construction management literature, which mainly include quality deviations, quality failures, defects, and non-conformance. Martins et al [4] introduced a model using cluster analysis to classify risks. Risks are classified according to different risk categories, activity development, sensitivity, production reliability, and constraints on construction projects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Reducing Construction Project Delivery Time under Limited Resources

2021

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One of the most vital construction project aspects is to complete a project in minimum time restricted to the time–cost trade-off. Overlapping activities’ planning and their impact on the project under limited resource constraints should be considered. This study aims to develop a model for optimizing the project schedule and cost regarding overlap activities and their impacts. This study reviews previous studies on changes in past activities likely to produce additional reworking of subsequent activities. In addition, an AHP model is developed to assess the reworking time of subsequent activities based on possible changes in previous activities. In addition, five realistic construction projects are applied. Finally, an optimizing model is developed for optimizing project time and cost using overlapping techniques by using the Java program. The results indicate that the proposed model can be used by project managers easily for solving time and cost optimization problems. In addition, it can be updated to continuously improve its functionality. Finally, it can be updated later to support AI for finding better solutions.

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Sharp schedule compression in urgent emergency construction projects via activity crashing, substitution and overlapping: a case study of Huoshengshan and Leishenshan Hospital projects in Wuhan

Lü

Wang

et al. 2022

ECAM

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PurposeTo meet the rapidly increasing demand for medical treatment during the outbreak of COVID-19, Huoshengshan and Leishenshan Hospital are rapidly built (9–12 days) in Wuhan. These two urgent emergency projects are unprecedented. In general, substantial literature suggests that the possibility of shortening a schedule by more than a quarter of its original duration is implausible. By contrast, the two projects had successfully compressed the schedules from months and years to about ten days. This study aims to investigate how this was done and provide references for future projects.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses qualitative case study techniques to analyze the project practices in two urgent emergency projects. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews and archival research. During interviews, interviewees were asked to describe the project practices adopted to overcome the challenges and freely share their experiences and knowledge.FindingsThe results illustrate that a high degree of schedule compression is achievable through tactful crashing, substitution and overlapping applications. The successful practices heavily rely on the high capacity of participants and necessary organization, management and technology innovations, such as three-level matrix organizational structure, reverse design method, site partition, mock-up room first strategies and prefabricated construction technology. For instance, the reverse design method is one of the most significant innovations to project simplification and accelerate and worthy of promotion for future emergency projects.Practical implicationsThe empirical findings are significant as they evoke new thinking and direction for addressing the main challenges of sharp schedule compression and provide valuable references for future emergency projects, including selecting high-capacity contractors and replacing the conventional design methods with reverse design.Originality/valueSubstantial studies indicate that the maximum degree of schedule compression is highly unlikely to exceed 25%, but this study suggests that sharp compression is possible. Although with flaws in its beauty (i.e. compressing schedule at the expense of construction cost and quality), it is also a breakthrough. It provides the building block for future research in this fertile and unexplored area.

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Conceptual Quantitative Model to Group Risks in Fast-Track Construction Projects

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Quantitative Risk Assessment Model and Optimization in Infrastructure Fast-Track Construction Projects

Quantitative Risk Assessment Model and Optimization in Infrastructure Fast-Track Construction Projects

Toward Reducing Construction Project Delivery Time under Limited Resources

Sharp schedule compression in urgent emergency construction projects via activity crashing, substitution and overlapping: a case study of Huoshengshan and Leishenshan Hospital projects in Wuhan

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