2019
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2019.0774
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Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control: Ebola as a case study

Abstract: Determining how best to manage an infectious disease outbreak may be hindered by both epidemiological uncertainty (i.e. about epidemiological processes) and operational uncertainty (i.e. about the effectiveness of candidate interventions). However, these two uncertainties are rarely addressed concurrently in epidemic studies. We present an approach to simultaneously address both sources of uncertainty, to elucidate which source most impedes decision-making. In the case of the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak, … Show more

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Cited by 17 publications
(17 citation statements)
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“…1). The projections from the second round of modeling are then used to generate aggregate results under different interventions that encapsulate scientific uncertainty about epidemiological processes and management interventions (Li et al 2019). We stress that this process is designed primarily to inform decision making, rather than to provide quantitative projections of epidemic trajectory (as in ongoing forecasting challenges; Ray et al submitted), though such results are also obtained.…”
Section: Main Textmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…1). The projections from the second round of modeling are then used to generate aggregate results under different interventions that encapsulate scientific uncertainty about epidemiological processes and management interventions (Li et al 2019). We stress that this process is designed primarily to inform decision making, rather than to provide quantitative projections of epidemic trajectory (as in ongoing forecasting challenges; Ray et al submitted), though such results are also obtained.…”
Section: Main Textmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The direction and magnitude of forecast bias may lead to sub-optimal management recommendations when comparing culling-based interventions to, for example, frequently debated vaccination-based interventions [33,60]. The degree to which these biases will result in incorrect management recommendations is beyond the scope of this analysis; however, this work highlights the importance of accounting for operational, as well as epidemiological, uncertainties and their potential impact on management recommendations as well as epidemic forecasts [61]. The measures our simulation used for predicting management outcomes (i.e.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Additionally, models that account for the known uncertainties not currently represented in risk projections (e.g., gray boxes of Fig 5) will be needed to better inform risk-based decision making as mission durations and doses considerably increase beyond our current ISS experience base. Future Value of Information (VoI) analyses and Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) methods can be used to guide research to understand the potential value of resolving uncertainty between model projections [Li et al 2019].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%