CONFIDENCE overview of improvements in radioecological human food chain models and future needs

Abstract

Radioecological models used to make predictions of the radionuclide activity concentrations in human foodstuffs must be sufficiently robust and fit for purpose with uncertainties reduced where practicable. The CONFIDENCE project had a work package with the objective to improve the capabilities of radioecological models and this paper presents the key findings of this work. Recommendations for future radioecological studies/model developments are made based on the findings of the work conducted and consultations with end-users.

CONFIDENCE dissemination meeting: Summary on the scenario-based workshop

“…A poster was presented at the dissemination meeting describing the findings and conclusions of a workshop, "Do process-based models have a role in human food chain assessments?" (September 2019, Madrid) which was attended by about 40 end-users (industry, regulators, international bodies) and scientists, (see Beresford et al, 2020;Duranova et al, 2020).…”

“…The outputs of WP3 were reviewed (see Beresford et al, 2020) with the focus being on the development of processbased soil-plant models and their application to the Borsselle scenario.…”

Confidence: achievements and way forward

“…With the new emerging process-based models, clear guidance should be developed as to when and under which conditions simple or complex models should be applied. Future research priorities for human food chain modelling are presented in Beresford et al (2020).…”

Redesigning the FDMT Food Chain Transfer Model: Now Probabilistically Enabled and Fully Flexible

“…Following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents, the need of fit for purpose radioecological models to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in human foodstuffs has become widely acknowledged [1][2][3][4]. After an accidental release, the transport of radionuclides from the source and their dispersion within the environment trigger concerns related to the risk for humans and the environment.…”

“…One of the key problems identified was the current inability to incorporate process-based models (i.e. models who's parameterisation take into account soil and potentially plant characteristics [2]), in the context of simulating food-chain transfer, to potentially reduce the uncertainties associated with the existing empirical ratiobased transfer approaches. Raskob and Duranova [21] considered quantification and reduction of uncertainties to be an essential step towards improving decision making to protect affected populations and minimise the disruption of normal living conditions.…”