Confronting and Coping with Uncertainty in Biodiversity Research and Praxis

Abstract

This paper summarises discussions in a workshop entitled "exploring uncertainties in biodiversity science, policy and management". It draws together experiences gained by scientists and scholars when encountering and coping with different types of uncertainty in their work in the field of biodiversity protection. The RESEARCH ARTICLE Launched to accelerate biodiversity conservation A peer-reviewed open-access journalYrjö Haila et al. / Nature Conservation 8: 45-75 (2014) 46 discussion covers all main phases of scientific work: field work and data analysis; methodologies; setting goals for research projects, taking simultaneously into account the agency of scientists conducting the work; developing communication with policy-makers and society at large; and giving arguments for the societal relevance of the issues. The paper concludes with a plea for collaborative learning that would build upon close cooperation among specialists who have developed expertise in different fields in research, management and politics.

Uncertainty and the design of in-situ biodiversity-monitoring programs

“…We are monitoring because we are uncertain, so uncertainty has to be a central issue in any monitoring scheme. However, biodiversity monitoring is more complex than monitoring physical phenomena, such as weather, because there are so many definitions of biodiversity, and it has different values for different segments of society (see Haila et al 2014). …”

“…pollination), but decision makers have to take into account the needs of many different stakeholders, who may be interested in subjects as varied as the effect of large carnivores on domestic animals, bacterial metagenomics, ecosystem carbon storage and traditional uses of biodiversity. Reduction of these varied interests to a production-line mathematical model with limited inputs and outputs is usually not feasible, especially when a major uncertainty is whether we are addressing the right question (Haila et al 2014). Therefore, investing monitoring in a limited number of questions, however important they may be at the moment, is not an efficient strategy.…”

“…These are very interesting questions, but a biologist interested in biodiversity questions might have to deal with uncertainty as to whether bovine tuberculosis is better avoided or treated, whether management costs outweigh the costs of no action, whether other species are more important than ferrets in transmission, whether control measures might be considered inhumane, whether climate change or changes in markets might make the question irrelevant, and many other sources of uncertainty that are difficult to put into a probabilistic framework. While it is reasonable to ignore such concerns in a short-term study designed to find a solution to an immediate pressing problem, researchers interested in conserving biodiversity over the next century do not have the luxury of being able to use such a focused and short-term approach (Haila et al 2014).…”

Uncertainty in biodiversity science, policy and management: a conceptual overview

“…The imperative builds upon scientific knowledge on human dependence on the life-support systems of the Earth. This paper aims at introducing main types of uncertainty inherent in biodiversity science, policy and management, as an introduction to a companion paper summarizing practical experiences of scientists and scholars (Haila et al 2014). Uncertainty is a cluster concept: the actual nature of uncertainty is inherently context-bound.…”

“…Specifications are needed as to what, precisely, is uncertain, what is the reason for the uncertainty, and whether the uncertainty matters. Further below, we use the notion of semantic space to explore key aspects of uncertainty in the context of biodiversity science, policy and management (see also Haila et al 2014).…”