Connecting research and practice to enhance the evolutionary potential of species under climate change

Abstract

Resource managers have rarely accounted for evolutionary dynamics in the design or implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. We brought the research and management communities together to identify challenges and opportunities for applying evidence from evolutionary science to support on‐the‐ground actions intended to enhance species' evolutionary potential. We amalgamated input from natural‐resource practitioners and interdisciplinary scientists to identify information needs, current knowledge that can fill those needs, and future avenues for research. Three focal areas that can guide engagement include: (1) recognizing when to act, (2) understanding the feasibility of assessing evolutionary potential, and (3) identifying best management practices. Although researchers commonly propose using molecular methods to estimate genetic diversity and gene flow as key indicators of evolutionary potential, we offer guidance on several additional attributes (and their proxies) that may also guide decision‐making, particularly in the absence of genetic data. Finally, we outline existing decision‐making frameworks that can help managers compare alternative strategies for supporting evolutionary potential, with the goal of increasing the effective use of evolutionary information, particularly for species of conservation concern. We caution, however, that arguing over nuance can generate confusion; instead, dedicating increased focus on a decision‐relevant evidence base may better lend itself to climate adaptation actions.

When will a changing climate outpace adaptive evolution?

“…Ideally, evolutionary forecasts would be developed with information on the initial amount and nature of genetic variation broadly and additive genetic variance in key climate‐responsive traits, genetic covariation, generation time, gene flow, multifarious selection acting on the population, dispersal capability, phenotypic plasticity—especially in key climate‐responsive traits, and information on current and future microclimatic niches. However, obtaining these data represents a substantial investment in time and resources (Nosil et al, 2020); the types of data more typically available at the present time are often incomplete compared with this list and/or rely on proxies of these factors (Thompson et al, 2023).…”

“…Populations for which there is high additive genetic variance (estimated by variancestandardized heritability, and meanstandardized evolvability) in climate-adaptive traits are expected to persist under climate change (Thompson et al, 2023).…”

“…Yet it is worth taking a step back to reconcile the various calls for updates to forecasting tools with the scale of the problem at hand when it comes to incorporating evolutionary thinking into conservation plans. Thompson et al (2023) summarized the outcome of a dialogue between evolutionary biologists and conservation practitioners with the joint goal of improving conservation plans. Echoing findings from previous work (e.g., Cook & Sgrò, 2019), Thompson et al (2023) reiterated the important point that land managers and basic or fundamental researchers often call for different information on evolutionary potential, and that at the scale at which conservation practitioners are making decisions, often proxies such as population size, are used to form the basis of these decisions.…”

“…Thompson et al (2023) summarized the outcome of a dialogue between evolutionary biologists and conservation practitioners with the joint goal of improving conservation plans. Echoing findings from previous work (e.g., Cook & Sgrò, 2019), Thompson et al (2023) reiterated the important point that land managers and basic or fundamental researchers often call for different information on evolutionary potential, and that at the scale at which conservation practitioners are making decisions, often proxies such as population size, are used to form the basis of these decisions. This review also usefully provides a roadmap for when proxies or more detailed evolutionary forecasts are needed and will be most effective.…”

Adaptive genomic variation is linked to a climatic gradient in a social wasp

“…Some species show remarkable abilities to adjust to environmental changes, which can be mediated by phenotypic plasticity and/or genetically-based adaptations (Nicotra et al 2015, Thompson et al 2023). Understanding how selective and demographic forces shape this adaptive potential is critical to elucidate adaptive responses and, ultimately, population resilience (Holderegger et al 2006, Balkenhol et al 2019).…”