Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptationnatural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.C limate affects organisms in ways that ultimately shape patterns of biodiversity (1). Consequently, the rapid changes in Earth's recent climate impose challenges for many organisms, often reducing population fitness (2-4). Although some species may migrate and undergo range shifts to avoid climate-induced declines and potential extinction (5), an alternative outcome is adaptive evolution in response to selection imposed by climate (6). However, we lack a general understanding of whether local and global climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, and water availability influence selection (2, 7). Understanding these effects is critical for predicting the consequences of increasing droughts, heat waves, and extreme precipitation events that are expected in many regions (8, 9).To quantify how climate variation influences selection, we assembled a large database of standardized directional selection gradients and differentials from spatially [mean = 4.6 ± 5.4 (SD) populations, range = 2 to 59 populations] and temporally [mean = 5.2 ± 6.8 (SD) years, range = 2 to 45 years] replicated selection studies (N = 168) in plant and animal populations (Table 1 and database S1). We focused on directional selection that can generate increases or decreases in trait values because it is well characterized and is likely to drive rapid evolution (10) in response to variation in climatic factors. However, selection acting on trait combinations and trait variance may also be affected by climate (7). Selection gradients estimate the strength and direction of selection acting directly on a trait, whereas differentials estimate "total selection" on a trait via both direct and indirect selection because of trait correlations (11). These standardized selection coefficients describe selection in terms of the relationship between relative fitness and quantitative traits measured in standard deviations, thus facilitating cross-study comparisons (11,12).Geographically, the database contains many estimates of selection from temperate, mid-latitude regions centered at 40°N (Fig. 1A). The populations in this database span many terrestrial biomes on Earth, with the exception of tundra and tropical rainforests where selection has rarely been quantified (Fig. 1B...

Abstract. How do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? We examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). Most resident U.K. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. We show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. In addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. Our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change.

We investigated the roles of resource availability and phenotypic plasticity in promoting ecological character displacement (i.e., trait evolution stemming from resource competition between species). Because ecological character displacement generates new populations that differ in resource use, this process should only occur when exploitable resources are available. We tested this hypothesis in two species of spadefoot toads (Spea bombifrons and S. multiplicata) whose tadpoles use phenotypic plasticity to develop into either an omnivore morph, which specializes on detritus, or a physically distinctive carnivore morph, which specializes on shrimp. Both species grow best on shrimp, but when reared together, S. bombifrons outcompetes S. multiplicata for shrimp and S. multiplicata outcompetes S. bombifrons for detritus. We found that when each species occurred alone in the field, they produced similar proportions of omnivores and carnivores. When the two species occurred together, however, they underwent ecological character displacement in larval development, with S. multiplicata producing mostly omnivores, and S. bombifrons producing mostly carnivores. We combined observations of natural populations with experiments to evaluate whether such character displacement was only possible when both shrimp and detritus were relatively abundant. Mixed-species ponds contained abundant detritus and shrimp, in contrast with nearby pure-species ponds, which were deficient in one resource. Experiments revealed that S. multiplicata competed poorly when detritus was rare and that S. bombifrons competed poorly when shrimp was rare. In nature, when one of these two resources was scarce, one species was missing, perhaps through competitive exclusion by the species that was the superior competitor for the remaining resource. Thus, ecological character displacement and, therefore, coexistence of close competitors, was only possible when diverse resources were available. Finally, even if exploitable resources are available, character displacement is not guaranteed to transpire if species cannot utilize such resources expeditiously. Phenotypic plasticity provides a general and important mechanism for facilitating resource partitioning. Thus, by facilitating shifts in resource use, phenotypic plasticity and ecological opportunity may often interact to promote divergence and coexistence of competitors.

Urban ecosystems are rapidly expanding throughout the world, but how urban growth affects the evolutionary ecology of species living in urban areas remains largely unknown. Urban ecology has advanced our understanding of how the development of cities and towns change environmental conditions and alter ecological processes and patterns. However, despite decades of research in urban ecology, the extent to which urbanization influences evolutionary and eco‐evolutionary change has received little attention. The nascent field of urban evolutionary ecology seeks to understand how urbanization affects the evolution of populations, and how those evolutionary changes in turn influence the ecological dynamics of populations, communities, and ecosystems. Following a brief history of this emerging field, this Perspective article provides a research agenda and roadmap for future research aimed at advancing our understanding of the interplay between ecology and evolution of urban‐dwelling organisms. We identify six key questions that, if addressed, would significantly increase our understanding of how urbanization influences evolutionary processes. These questions consider how urbanization affects nonadaptive evolution, natural selection, and convergent evolution, in addition to the role of urban environmental heterogeneity on species evolution, and the roles of phenotypic plasticity versus adaptation on species’ abundance in cities. Our final question examines the impact of urbanization on evolutionary diversification. For each of these six questions, we suggest avenues for future research that will help advance the field of urban evolutionary ecology. Lastly, we highlight the importance of integrating urban evolutionary ecology into urban planning, conservation practice, pest management, and public engagement.