Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance

Malova, Aleksandra; Ploeg, Frederick van der

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.022

Cited by 19 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Governments could lose tax and other revenue from plunging sales of their domestic industries (not to be confused with carbon price revenue reviewed in Section 5), especially, but not exclusively for fossil fuel exporters. For instance, Malova and van der Ploeg (2017) calculate that low oil and gas demand, in line with a 2°C scenario, would require the Russian government to divert an additional 0.9% of GDP a year toward investments outside the fossil energy sector to keep the fiscal stance sustainable.…”

Section: A Model and Classification Of Low‐carbon Transition Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low‐carbon transition risks for finance

Semieniuk

Campiglio

Mercure

et al. 2020

WIREs Climate Change

215

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The transition to a low‐carbon economy will entail a large‐scale structural change. Some industries will have to expand their relative economic weight, while other industries, especially those directly linked to fossil fuel production and consumption, will have to decline. Such a systemic shift may have major repercussions on the stability of financial systems, via abrupt asset revaluations, defaults on debt, and the creation of bubbles in rising industries. Studies on previous industrial transitions have shed light on the financial transition risks originating from rapidly rising “sunrise” industries. In contrast, a similar conceptual understanding of risks from declining “sunset” industries is currently lacking. We substantiate this claim with a critical review of the conceptual and historical literature, which also shows that most literature either examines structural change in the real economy, or risks to financial stability, but rarely both together. We contribute to filling this research gap by developing a consistent theoretical framework of the drivers, transmission channels, and impacts of the phase‐out of carbon‐intensive industries on the financial system and on the feedback from the financial system into the rest of the economy. We also review the state of play of policy aiming to protect the financial system from transition risks and spell out research implications. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change

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Section: A Model and Classification Of Low‐carbon Transition Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low‐carbon transition risks for finance

Semieniuk

Campiglio

Mercure

et al. 2020

WIREs Climate Change

215

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The first challenge is that carbon wealth could decline in value as the world decarbonizes, putting severe strains on carbon-rich countries' finances (Malova and van der Ploeg 2017). Figure 5.1 shows countries' carbon wealth in absolute and per capita terms.…”

Section: Four Challenges For Carbon-rich Nationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future

Lange¹,

Wodon²,

Carey³

2017

262

141

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This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

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