Consistent decrease in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone frequency following major volcanic eruptions in the last three centuries

Guevara-Murua, Alvaro; Hendy, Erica; Rust, Alison; Cashman, Katharine V.

doi:10.1002/2015gl066154

Cited by 28 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…3). The large influx of sulphate aerosols into the NH during the climatologically important Laki volcanic eruption may have cooled the NH resulting in fewer North Atlantic TCs overall49; however, our results suggest that the eruption also shifted North Atlantic TC tracks to the south, resulting in relatively more Central American TC landfalls.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Baldini

McElwaine

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Baldini

McElwaine

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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“…As for earlier eruptions, Guevara-Murua et al 8 analyzed reconstructions of TCs following major volcanic eruptions, and found a consistent reduction of North Atlantic TC activity in the 3 years following the eruptions. In addition to the fact that their finding is based on proxy reconstructions and not actual observations, they did not propose a mechanism to explain how high-latitude volcanic eruptions would cause a reduction of North Atlantic TC activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…For instance, Stevenson et al 29 noticed that volcanic forcing can alter the Another possibility is that the volcanic eruptions modify the ITCZ location, which would also influence TC activity, as suggested in ref. 8 . Recently 30 showed in a modeling study that after Tamborastrength volcanic eruptions TC activity is modulated by the ITCZ response.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Little evidence of reduced global tropical cyclone activity following recent volcanic eruptions

Camargo

Polvani

2019

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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The impact of volcanic aerosols on recent global tropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined in observations, reanalysis, and models (the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5-CMIP5 multi-model, and one single model large ensemble). In observations, we find a reduction of TC activity only in the North Atlantic following the last three strong volcanic eruptions; that signal, however, cannot be clearly attributed to volcanoes, as all three eruptions were simultaneous with El Niño events. In reanalyses, we find no robust impact of volcanic eruptions on potential intensity (PI) and genesis indices. In models, we find a reduction in PI after volcanic eruptions in the historical simulations, but this effect is significantly reduced when differences between the model environment and observations are accounted for. Morever, the CMIP5 multi-model historical ensemble shows no effect of volcanic eruptions on a TC genesis index. Finally, there is no robust and consistent reduction in recent TC activity following recent volcanic eruptions in a large set of synthetic TCs downscaled from these simulations. Taken together, these results show that in recent eruptions volcanic aerosols did not reduce global TC activity.

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“…To comprehend the behavior of TC, it is important to identify the factors contributing to observed TC changes and quantify the response to external forcings, which lays a solid foundation for better future projection. Thus, intensive investigations have been performed to estimate the effect of anthropogenic and natural forcings on Atlantic hurricanes (Dunion & Velden, 2004;Dunstone et al, 2013;Emanuel, 2013;Gillett et al, 2008;Guevara-Murua et al, 2015;Holland & Webster, 2007;Knutson et al, 2008;Villarini & Vecchi, 2012). However, attentions are mainly paid on the short-term (i.e., centennial time scale) effect of increased greenhouse gases or short-lived forcings (e.g., volcanic aerosols).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years

Yan

Zhang

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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To advance our knowledge on tropical cyclone (TC)'s sensitivity to various external forcings, we investigate evolution of TC genesis potential over the North Atlantic during the last 21,000 years that experienced more varied forcings than present‐day using transient simulations. Abrupt large amplitude of fluctuations in genesis potential during the studied period was dominated by meltwater discharge, whereas insolation controlled the long‐term trend. Increased (decreased) meltwater discharge from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets leads to detrimental (conducive) conditions for genesis via altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and hence three‐dimensional temperature structure and Hadley circulation. This effect is larger than the orographic effect of retreated ice sheets that favors TC formation. Decreasing (increasing) insolation broadly results in more (less) favorable conditions for genesis arising from larger (smaller) local vertical temperature contrast and stronger (weaker) meridional circulation. Our study highlights potential changes of ice sheets and insolation in affecting future long‐term TC activity.

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Consistent decrease in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone frequency following major volcanic eruptions in the last three centuries

Cited by 28 publications

References 46 publications

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Little evidence of reduced global tropical cyclone activity following recent volcanic eruptions

Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years

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