Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

Steininger, Karl W.; Bednar–Friedl, Birgit; Formayer, Herbert; König, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2016.02.003

Cited by 38 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Rural areas, especially in alpine territories, are affected by climate change in multiple ways. In Austria, the socio-economic impacts of climate change have been assessed for several sectors [1]. One of these sectors with strong importance for remote areas is tourism.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Out of the City Heat—Way to Less or More Sustainable Futures?

Juschten

Brandenburg²,

Hössinger

et al. 2019

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rural alpine areas are affected by climate change in multiple ways. Today, many lower regions already face challenges in winter. However, several authors indicated new potentials for near-metropolitan areas in summer. As the first study for a metropolitan area, this paper discusses results of a large-scale quantitative survey (n = 877) from Vienna (Austria) to evaluate the intentions of urban residents to seek refreshment in nearby mountainous regions. The results regarding their adaptation behavior confirm the likely increase in demand to escape to nearby refreshing areas during heatwaves. This trend could lead to (re-)vitalization potential for rural near-metropolitan areas in Eastern Austria, which are often characterized by depopulation and degradation of infrastructure. A closer look at the respondents’ mobility behavior, reveals a high risk for unsustainable developments. Although the high and increasing share of car-free households in Vienna would suggest a strong demand for public transport, the likelihood to travel by car towards such destinations is high even among this group. Focusing predominantly on on-site mobility offers would be recommended since many travelers did not use their car within the destination. At last, the attractiveness of climate-friendly travel options is discussed considering mobility-related needs and preferences of three touristic motive groups.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Out of the City Heat—Way to Less or More Sustainable Futures?

Juschten

Brandenburg²,

Hössinger

et al. 2019

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Adaptation capacities are modelled by the demand-forsafety approach (Hinkel et al 2014) and depend mainly on local GDP per capita and local coastal population density, and thus vary between SSP scenarios. It is a widely accepted assumption that these two parameters are the main determinants of adaptation (Sadoff et al 2015, Hallegate et al 2013. Without further adaptation, dike heights are maintained, but not raised, so flood risk increases with time as relative sea level rises.…”

Section: Research Approach Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…CGE models have been heavily applied in the literature for the economy-wide assessment of climate-related impacts in several economic sectors (Bigano et al 2008, Aaheim et al 2012, Ciscar et al 2011, 2012, OECD 2015, Steininger et al 2016. The PESETA and PESETA II projects, for example, applied a comparativestatic CGE analysis by introducing biophysical impacts as inputs to the General Equilibrium Model for Economy -Energy-Environment (GEM-E3) for Europe (Ciscar et al 2011(Ciscar et al , 2012(Ciscar et al , 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economy-wide effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: a multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts

Schinko

Drouet

Vrontisi

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Commun.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article presents a multi-model assessment of the macroeconomic impacts of coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the respective economy-wide implications of adaptation measures for two greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration targets, namely the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)2.6 and RCP4.5, and subsequent temperature increases. We combine our analysis, focusing on the global level, as well as on individual G20 countries, with the corresponding stylized RCP mitigation efforts in order to understand the implications of interactions across mitigation, adaptation and sea level rise on a macroeconomic level. Our global results indicate that until the middle of this century, differences in macroeconomic impacts between the two climatic scenarios are small, but increase substantially towards the end of the century. Moreover, direct economic impacts can be partially absorbed by substitution effects in production processes and via international trade effects until 2050. By 2100 however, we find that this dynamic no longer holds and economy-wide effects become even larger than direct impacts. The disturbances of mitigation efforts to the overall economy may in some regions and for some scenarios lead to a counterintuitive result, namely to GDP losses that are higher in RCP26 than in RCP45, despite higher direct coastal damages in the latter scenario. Within the G20, our results indicate that China, India and Canada will experience the highest macroeconomic impacts, in line with the respective direct climatic impacts, with the two first large economies undertaking the highest mitigation efforts in a cost-efficient global climate action. A sensitivity analysis of varying socioeconomic assumptions highlights the role of climate-resilient development as a crucial complement to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

show abstract

“…For the macroeconomic analysis (step 3), we use a single-country, comparative static CGE model of Austria (Bachner et al 2015;Steininger et al 2016;Bachner and Bednar-Friedl 2018). The model covers 40 economic sectors and one representative private household, which is endowed with labor and capital.…”

Section: Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As shown in the literature, climate change leads to significant losses in a broad range of economic sectors and of overall economic performance (Ciscar et al 2011(Ciscar et al , 2012Bosello et al 2012;Sussman et al 2014;Bosello and De Cian 2014;OECD 2015;Steininger et al 2015;Dellink et al 2017). Economy-wide effects can be much larger than direct impacts within sectors, due to indirect effects (Hallegatte et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How does climate change adaptation affect public budgets? Development of an assessment framework and a demonstration for Austria

Bachner

Bednar–Friedl

Knittel

2019

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Public adaptation to climate change affects government budgets directly on the expenditure side, but also indirectly via changes in the tax base and government consumption patterns. While such indirect effects have been analyzed intensively for mitigation policies, similarly detailed model-based frameworks and studies for adaptation policy are still missing. The objectives of the present paper are (i) to fill this gap by proposing a general modeling framework that allows for a comprehensive analysis of effects of adaptation on federal budgets, both on the expenditure and the revenue side, as well as of macroeconomic effects and (ii) to demonstrate its usefulness by applying this framework to the case of Austria. We find that public adaptation can lead to substantial positive macroeconomic effects on gross domestic product (GDP), welfare, and employment. The results are robust with respect to assumptions about the effectiveness of adaptation. Also, we demonstrate that it is essential for analysis to cover both the expenditure and revenue side, as overall government revenues can increase due to adaptation, offsetting additional direct public expenses for adaptation, thus increasing the budget balance. This is because of less severe climate change impacts and the corresponding lower payments for post-disaster relief and unemployment benefits as well as higher tax revenues. We thus strongly recommend making use of economy-wide modeling frameworks when planning for adaptation, as they shed light on the true costs and benefits of adaptation.

show abstract

Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

Cited by 38 publications

References 34 publications

Out of the City Heat—Way to Less or More Sustainable Futures?

Out of the City Heat—Way to Less or More Sustainable Futures?

Economy-wide effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: a multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts

How does climate change adaptation affect public budgets? Development of an assessment framework and a demonstration for Austria

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About