Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia

Chai, Yuanfang; Liu, Caiqiong; Slater, Louise; Yin, Jiabo; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Chen, Tiexi; Wang, Guojie

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7

Cited by 26 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…For the future climate scenarios, we use a multi‐model ensemble consisting of five GCMs listed in Table S1 of Supporting Information S1 under three SSPs (i.e., SSP1‐26, SSP3‐70, and SSP5‐85) from the latest CMIP6. Numerous studies have found that the raw outputs of precipitation and temperature from CMIP6 climate models are overestimated in Asia and have non‐negligible uncertainties (Chai et al., 2022). To reduce the systematic biases of climate models, we use the bias‐corrected daily outputs from the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project 3b (ISIMIP3b).…”

Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observation‐Constrained Projection of Flood Risks and Socioeconomic Exposure in China

et al. 2023

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As the planet warms, the atmosphere's water vapor holding capacity rises, leading to more intense precipitation extremes. River floods with high peak discharge or long duration can increase the likelihood of infrastructure failure and enhance ecosystem vulnerability. However, changes in the peak and duration of floods and corresponding socioeconomic exposure under climate change are still poorly understood. This study employs a bivariate framework to quantify changes in flood risks and their socioeconomic impacts in China between the past (1985–2014) and future (2071–2100) in 204 catchments. Future daily river streamflow is projected by using a cascade modeling chain based on the outputs of five bias‐corrected global climate models (GCMs) under three shared socioeconomic CMIP6 pathways (SSP1‐26, SSP3‐70, and SSP5‐85), a machine learning model and four hydrological models. We also utilize the copula function to build the joint distribution of flood peak and duration, and calculate the joint return periods of the bivariate flood hazard. Finally, the exposure of population and regional gross domestic product to floods are investigated at the national scale. Our results indicate that flood peak and duration are likely to increase in the majority of catchments by 25%–100% by the late 21st century depending on the shared socioeconomic pathway. China is projected to experience a significant increase in bivariate flood risks even under the lowest emission pathway, with 24.0 million dollars/km2 and 608 people/km2 exposed under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP3‐70). These findings have direct implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation policies in China.

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Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observation‐Constrained Projection of Flood Risks and Socioeconomic Exposure in China

et al. 2023

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“…Precipitation and temperature largely determine the snowfall and snowmelt rates, producing large effects on snowpack 4 . However, temperature and precipitation of ESM simulations still have systematic biases 54 . The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) forcing data used in this study shows an overall consistent trend of future precipitation and air temperature projections over the TP with the ensemble mean of the used CMIP6 models (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming

Hao

Bisht

Wang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Light-absorbing particles (LAP) such as black carbon and dust deposited on seasonal snowpack can result in snow darkening, earlier snowmelt, and regional climate change. However, the future deposition and surface radiative forcing of LAP in snow and their contributions to snowpack change remain unclear. Here, using Earth System Model simulations, we show significant reduction in black carbon deposition in the future. The reduced deposition decreases the December-May average LAP-induced radiative forcing in snow over the Northern Hemisphere from 1.3 W m-2 during 1995-2014 to 0.65 W m-2 and 0.49 W m-2 by 2081-2100 under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The reduced black carbon contamination in snow over the Tibetan Plateau will alleviate future snowpack loss due to climate change by 52.1±8.0% and 8.0±1.1% for the two scenarios. Our findings highlight a cleaner snow future and its benefits for future water availability from snowmelt.

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“…The constrained GSAT warming is useful for other climate quantities that scale well with GSAT change (Hu et al., 2021; Lee et al., 2021). The projections of local temperature and water availability over the Artic and Eurasian continents can be constrained by using the observed GSAT warming trend (Chai et al., 2022; Hu et al., 2021; Ribes et al., 2022). In addition, combining the observed evidence of global and regional warming can refine the regional projection assessment (Qasmi & Ribes, 2022; Ribes et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China

Chen,

Zhou,

Chen

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Reliable regional temperature projections including heat extremes are essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Taking China as an example, simple averages from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models project high warming due to sampling many high climate sensitivities in the ensemble. Here, we develop an emergent constraint (EC) framework to obtain constrained mean and daily maximum temperature (TXx) warming over China by using observed global warming and local residual warming. The constrained annual mean and TXx warming over China (2.33°C [1.61–3.05°C] and 2.31°C [1.21–2.99°C]) are 0.65°C [0.04–1.76°C] and 0.63°C [–0.50–2.39°C], respectively, lower than raw projections (2.98°C [1.85–4.22°C] and 2.94°C [2.04–4.39°C]) for 2080–2099 under the intermediate‐emission scenario. Approximately half model uncertainty is reduced after constraint. The land area (population) experiencing temperature extremes in our metric is 78% (85%) of the raw projections. Our results imply a lower impact of extreme heat than implied by current raw CMIP6 projections.

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Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia

Cited by 26 publications

References 67 publications

Observation‐Constrained Projection of Flood Risks and Socioeconomic Exposure in China

Observation‐Constrained Projection of Flood Risks and Socioeconomic Exposure in China

A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming

Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China

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