Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming

Thackeray, Chad W.; Hall, Alex; Norris, Jesse; Chen, Di

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01329-1

Cited by 136 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…35 to the target of global precipitation change. In contrast to other important climate variables, most prominently future warming 35,[55][56][57] , emergent constraints 58 for global precipitation changes have only recently been suggested 59,60 . Here, our main aim was to reduce the influence of models which simulate variables considered important for the representation of precipitation very different from observations rather than applying a constraint that necessarily reduces model spread.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change

Gründemann

Giesen

Brunner

et al. 2022

Commun Earth Environ

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Future rainfall extremes are projected to increase with global warming according to theory and climate models, but common (annual) and rare (decennial or centennial) extremes could be affected differently. Here, using 25 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 driven by a range of plausible scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, we show that the rarer the event, the more likely it is to increase in a future climate. By the end of this century, daily land rainfall extremes could increase in magnitude between 10.5% and 28.2% for annual events, and between 13.5% and 38.3% for centennial events, for low and high emission scenarios respectively. The results are consistent across models though with regional variation, but the underlying mechanisms remain to be determined.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change

Gründemann

Giesen

Brunner

et al. 2022

Commun Earth Environ

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“…Conversely, between 0 • and 10 • N, the annual regime will change into the biannual regime. It should be noted that the number of models in figure 4 is just about three out of the seven selected models, as CMIP6 projections of changing seasonal regimes vary widely across climate models [60].…”

Section: Projected Changes In Wet and Dry Seasons In The Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Regime shifts of the wet and dry seasons in the tropics under global warming

Guo

Guan

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The main seasonal characteristics in the tropics include both spatial patterns and temporal parameters of onset, cessation, duration, and the number of wet and dry seasons. Previous studies showed that wet seasons shortened and dry seasons extended with global warming, but the changes in spatial distribution and the number of wet and dry seasons are still unclear. Here, we analyze the climatic characteristics of once wet and dry season a year (annual regime) and twice wet and dry seasons a year (biannual regime), and find that regimes of wet and dry seasons have changed from 1935 to 2014. Across the equator and the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn, some regions where there used to be an annual regime have become a biannual regime; instead, other regions have shifted from a biannual regime into an annual regime. With seasonal regimes shifting, areas of the biannual regime have expanded at a rate of 31000 km2/decade. Meanwhile, in annual regime regions, wet seasons have been shortened in 60.3% of regions, with an average of 7 days; the onset dates of wet seasons have been delayed in 64.8%, with an average of 6 days. Besides, wet seasons have become wetter in 51.1% of regions, and dry seasons have become drier in 59.9%. In biannual regime regions, the shortened wet seasons have occurred in 83.7% of regions, with an average shortening of 8 days, and precipitation has decreased in both wet and dry seasons. Moreover, the shorter wet seasons will amplify further by the end of the 21st century. The continuous seasonal changes will threaten agricultural, ecological security, and even human well-being.

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“…The raw 5%-95% uncertainty ranges of future climate changes and impacts are estimated by assuming Gaussian distributions of the ESM spreads. We compute their observationally constrained ranges by applying the hierarchical ECs framework (Bowman et al 2018), as in Shiogama et al (2022) and Thackeray et al (2022). Here, z and x are the future climate changes/impacts and trT gm of ESMs, respectively.…”

Section: Estimation Of Uncertainty Rangesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty constraints on economic impact assessments of climate change simulated by an impact emulator

Shiogama

Takakura

Toko

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Since many new generation earth system models (ESMs) have been suggested to overestimate future global warming, the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used the constrained range of global warming instead of that in the raw ensemble. However, it is not clear how the constraints of climate change projections potentially reduce the uncertainty of impact assessments. Here, we show that the climate-related uncertainty of the economic impact of climate change in the world can be constrained. By applying an impact emulator, we estimate the economic impacts in nine sectors based on 67 ESMs’ future climate change projections and find that the impacts in eight sectors are closely related to the recent past trend of global mean temperature, which is the metric used for the constraint of global warming projections. Observational constraints lower the upper bound of the aggregate economic impact simulated by the single emulator from 2.9% to 2.5% of the world gross domestic product (the relative reduction of variance is 31%) under the medium greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. Our results demonstrate how advances in climate science can contribute to reducing climate-related uncertainties in impact assessments, while we do not examine uncertainties of emulators and impact models.

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Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming

Cited by 136 publications

References 70 publications

Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change

Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change

Regime shifts of the wet and dry seasons in the tropics under global warming

Uncertainty constraints on economic impact assessments of climate change simulated by an impact emulator

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