Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy

Issler, João Victor; Notini, Hilton Hostalácio; Rodrigues, Claudia Ferreira; Soares, Ana Flávia

doi:10.1590/s0034-71402013000100004

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…The present study used Vector Autoregressive Model (Castro & Nevárez) approach to test the domestic debt variable using Rafindadi and Ozturk (2017) test, and multivariate co-integration test for analyzing the causal association among economic growth and domestic debt. However, other co-integration tests like Wooldridge (2016), andIssler, Notini, andSoares (2013) can also be used to test the causality but the Johansen Cointegration test has certain desirable properties, such as it treats all test variables as endogenous variables.…”

Section: Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Developmet Facets: Does Sovereign Debt Accelerate the Economic Growth

Somjai¹,

Vasuvanich²,

Meechaiwong³

et al. 2019

JSSI

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The prime objective of the current study is to investigate the total sovereign debt on the economic growth of Thailand. Since domestic debt is considered to be an economic growth stimulator particularly during the period of recession, therefore, its instruments are intended to analyze in this research. In a country, the lack of funds may negatively influence economic growth, therefore, most countries like to use external debt to finance its expenditures, such as Thailand. This situation can be improved by focusing on these countries developmental research. In Thailand, the information scarcity regarding domestic debt acts as a policy constraint while designing an effective domestic debt mobilization policy. Thus, the present study predominantly aims to investigate the domestic debt effects on Thailand economic growth. The study has examined the domestic debt effects on the economic growth, during 1998-2018. The variables used in this study are extracted from the previous literature and the theoretical framework used in this study. The key variables analyzed are Treasury bills, Government securities, and Investment issues, not forgetting the loans mainly housing loans fund, market loans of Thailand. The study has used the Johansen and Juselius co-integration approach to examine the long run relationship while ECM approach was used to see the speed of adjustment in the short run. Furthermore, we have conducted the Lagrange Multiplier test to all variables to check the presence of autocorrelation. The results show that there is no autocorrelation in the variables. For the instrument of Government securities, we have found that all the variables which are financial sector, social security institutions, insurance companies, and financial sector show a statistically significant result in long run analysis. On the other hand, short run analysis based on ECM model shows that social security institution, insurance companies, financial sector and foreign holders turn to be significant while public sector show insignificant results. The result for ECM also shows that the model is well adjusted in the short run.

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Section: Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Developmet Facets: Does Sovereign Debt Accelerate the Economic Growth

Somjai¹,

Vasuvanich²,

Meechaiwong³

et al. 2019

JSSI

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“…While Bordoloi and Rajesh (2007) use a probit model at 3 months and 6 months forecast horizons to predict the business cycle recessions in India. Issler, Notini, Rodrigues, and Soares (2013) use the individual coincident indicator to forecast the economy of Latin American. Sfia (2010) constructed a CLI to forecast the inflation in Tunisia.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking and Moving Beyond GDP: A New Measure of Sarawak Economy Panorama

Wong¹,

Tan²,

Mansor³

et al. 2018

IBR

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Despite the relatively strong adjustment in the global economy outlook, the Malaysian economy remains uncertain as the ringgit movement lies ambiguously ahead while volatile capital flows, inflationary pressure, and the vulnerable external sector and global trade remain intense. The Sarawak economy, which relies heavily on primary commodities and export earnings from oil-based industries, will soon face a noxious mixture of economic risks following the decrease in commodity prices. Thus, it is essential to develop a well-timed signaling mechanism to estimate the unpredictable economic forces that develop from the complex and multidimensional issues of domestic and global economies. The ideology of indicator construction from the Conference Board will be applied in this study to build a composite leading indicator, called the Sarawak Business Cycle Indicator (SBCI), to trace the cyclical movement of the aggregate economic activity in Sarawak. In this respect, the SBCI, which has demonstrated statistical significance with an average leading power of 3.5 months, is expected to be important in reflecting a notable economic outlook for the State. More importantly, the SBCI will serve as a valuable reference to act as a short-term forecasting tool to provide insight at both the national and state levels.

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“…Regarding the literature on Brazilian business cycles, our paper is related to the work of Contador (1977), Cardoso (1981), Contador & Santos Filho (1987), Nakane (1994), Contador & Ferraz (1999), Spacov (2001), Issler & Spacov (2000), Chauvet (1998Chauvet ( , 2001Chauvet ( , 2002, Picchetti & Toledo (2002), Duarte, Issler, & Spacov (2004), Hollauer, Issler, & Notini (2009), BCB/Copom (2010), , and Issler, Notini, Rodrigues, & Soares (2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%