Construction duration of residential building projects in Germany

Abstract

PurposePlanning the construction duration is an important consideration in any construction project. Indicators that permit an early forecast of the duration provide the basis for such planning. To date, such a basis has been lacking in the German‐speaking area. This paper aims to discuss this matter.Design/methodology/approachIndicators are identified that enable a forecast of the construction duration. In addition, a simple regression model is provided to assist in selecting construction speed indicators. This empirical analysis relies on the data, collected on a uniform basis, from 115 German residential buildings.FindingsProject size (measured in m2 gross external floor area) and project standard (measured in € building construction cost/m2 gross external floor area) are found to be significant drivers of construction speed. It appears that project size, in contrast to the project standard, is positively correlated with construction speed.Originality/valueAn expansion of the data pool is required for more extensive study. On the one hand, this means including relevant drivers that have only been insufficiently considered to date, such as project complexity, project environment, management‐related attributes. On the other hand, the data pool must also be expanded to include other types of use.

Quantifying schedule risk in construction projects using Bayesian belief networks

“…Moreover, there have been significant efforts devoted to identifying and evaluating the relative importance of the significant factors contributing to delay and cost overruns in construction projects [4][5][6][7][8][9]12,[14][15][16][17][18][19], and to using artificial neural networks [10] as well as regression models [7,10,11,13,20] to predict time and cost performance of a variety of construction projects. Review of the extant literature shows that very little have been done on forecasting the probability of schedule delays in spite of its vital role in contributing to the success of construction projects.…”

Parametric time overrun estimation of building projects

“…Studies by Ireland (1983) and Figure 5. Quantile-Quantile plot JFMPC 21,3 Stoy et al (2007) suggest that GFA offers a better reflection of project-scope than IC and ID. The reason is that it is impossible to know the final project cost and duration (ex post) to anticipate the likelihood of time overrun (ex ante).…”

“…Statistical models for predicting construction time duration are extant (cf. Ogunsemi and Jagboro, 2006;Stoy et al, 2007;Ameyaw et al, 2012), often based on the pioneering research by Bromilow et al (1980). However, research reporting on time overrun forecasting is scant, and no study that focussed on the building sector was cited in literature by the authors.…”

“…The testing of a fitted regression equation is a demonstration of the effectiveness and soundness of the model for its intended purpose. Model testing for this research was inspired by the approach adopted by Stoy et al (2007); Chan and Chan (2004) and Hollar et al (2012). The 64 randomly selected projects that were set aside at the start of the model were used.…”

“…Project scope factors such as initial contract sum, initial project duration, number of storeys and the gross floor area are cited in literature as significant determinants of time performance (cf. Stoy et al, 2007;Love et al, 2005). Similarly, project funds, advance mobilisation, financial classification of a contractor, type of tender, etc.…”