Contemporary changes of thermal conditions in Poland, 1951-2015

Owczarek, Małgorzata; Filipiak, Janusz

doi:10.1515/bgeo-2016-0003

Cited by 48 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The consequence of the observed warming is a decrease in the number of cold days and cold waves. A similar direction of changes in Poland and Central Europe was also pointed out by other authors [4,[28][29][30][31]. In the studied years, cold waves of 5 and 7 days occurred the most frequently.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarysupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Earlier studies also determined the lack of statistically significant changes in air temperature in winter in many regions of Poland [26,27], simultaneously pointing to the strongest warming in spring and summer [4,26,27]. The consequence of the observed warming is a decrease in the number of cold days and cold waves.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The result is a decrease in the number of cold days and cold waves, although the changes are not as intensive as in the case of an increase in the frequency of hot days in the summer period. Current research conducted in Poland also points to a decrease in the number of cold days [2][3][4], although more evident changes are observed in the case of frequency of occurrence of days with strong frosts [5,6]. Despite the observed changes, during numerous winter seasons, several-day periods with very low air temperature have been recorded in Poland in recent years, for example in January 2016 and 2017 and February 2018 [7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cold Waves in Poznań (Poland) and Thermal Conditions in the City during Selected Cold Waves

2018

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Abstract:The objective of the paper was to characterize the occurrence of cold days and cold waves in Poznań in the years 1966/67-2015/16, as well as to characterize thermal conditions in the city during selected cold waves in the years 2008/09-2015/16. The study was based on daily data on maximum and minimum air temperature for station Poznań-Ławica from the years 1966/67-2015/16 and daily air temperature values from eight measurement points located in the territory of the city in different types of land use from the years 2008/08-2015/16. In addition, to characterize thermal conditions during selected days forming cold waves, satellite images were used, on the basis of which the land surface temperature (LST) was calculated. A cold day was defined as a day with daily maximum temperature (Tmax) below the value of 5th annual percentile of Tmax, and a cold wave was defined as at least five consecutive cold days. The study showed an increase in Tmax in winter, which translated to a decrease in the number of cold days over the last 50 years, although the changes were not statistically significant. Thermal conditions in the city showed high variability in the winter season and during the analyzed cold waves.

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Section: Discussion and Summarysupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cold Waves in Poznań (Poland) and Thermal Conditions in the City during Selected Cold Waves

2018

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“…In general, the maximal surface temperature obtained in Strzyzow was lower, being 3 • C, and relative humidity was higher, being up to 12%. The observed temperature ranges indicate a heat wave occurrence as it is in opposition to typical thermal conditions trends for Poland [47].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 59%

Effect of Heat Wave Conditions on Aerosol Optical Properties Derived from Satellite and Ground-Based Remote Sensing over Poland

2017

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Abstract:During an exceptionally warm September in 2016, unique and stable weather conditions contributed to a heat wave over Poland, allowing for observations of aerosol optical properties, using a variety of ground-based and satellite remote sensors. The data set collected during 11-16 September 2016 was analysed in terms of aerosol transport (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT)), aerosol load model simulations (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), Global Environmental Multiscale-Air Quality (GEM-AQ), columnar aerosol load measured at ground level (Aerosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET), Polish Aerosol Research Network (PolandAOD)) and from satellites (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), as well as with 24/7 PollyXT Raman Lidar observations at the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) site in Warsaw. Analyses revealed a single day of a relatively clean background aerosol related to an Arctic air-mass inflow, surrounded by a few days with a well increased aerosol load of differing origin: pollution transported from Germany and biomass burning from Ukraine. Such conditions proved excellent to test developed-in-house algorithms designed for near real-time aerosol optical depth (AOD) derivation from the SEVIRI sensor. The SEVIRI AOD maps derived over the territory of Poland, with an exceptionally high resolution (every 15 min; 5.5 × 5.5 km 2 ), revealed on an hourly scale, very low aerosol variability due to heat wave conditions. Comparisons of SEVIRI with NAAPS and CAMS AOD maps show strong qualitative similarities; however, NAAPS underestimates AOD and CAMS tends to underestimate it on relatively clean days (<0.2), and overestimate it for a high aerosol load (>0.4). A slight underestimation of the SEVIRI AOD is reported for pixel-to-column comparisons with AODs of several radiometers (AERONET, PolandAOD) and Lidar (EARLINET) with high correlation coefficients (r 2 of 0.8-0.91) and low root-mean-square error (RMSE of 0.03-0.05). A heat wave driven increase of the boundary layer height of 10% is accompanied with the AOD increase of 8-12% for an urban site dominated by anthropogenic pollution. Contrary trend, with an AOD decrease of around 4% for a rural site dominated by a long-range transported biomass burning aerosol is reported. There is a positive feedback of heat wave conditions on local and transported pollution and an extenuating effect on transported biomass burning aerosol. The daytime mean SEVIRI PM2.5 converted from the SEVIRI AODs at a pixel representative for Warsaw is in agreement with the daily mean PM2.5 surface measurements, whereby SEVIRI PM2.5 and Lidar-derived Ångström exponent are anti-correlated.

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“…Spring (mean temperature 7.4°C) has warmed at the rate of 0.36°C/10 years, summer (17.1°C) by ca 0.17°C/10 years, and autumn (8.4°C) by 0.06°C/10 years, whereas the latter change was statistically insignificant (Wibig, Jakusik 2012). Owczarek and Filipiak (2016) analyzed the air temperature in Poland at 18 meteorological stations for 1951-2015 and concluded that the mean temperature increased by 0.18-0.34°C/ 10 years, that is the mean annual air temperature increased by 1.1-2.2°C since 1951. Warming is also observed in extreme temperatures in Poland.…”

Section: Ubiquitous Warmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The September 2017 flood in Elbląg (Poland) in perspective

Konieczny¹,

Pińskwar²,

Kundzewicz³

2018

Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manage.

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Abstract. On the morning of 18 September 2017, the center of the city of Elbląg in northern Poland was inundated by the rapidly rising waters of the Kumiela River, resulting in considerable damage and chaos in the city. The present paper provides information about this event, which was caused by intense precipitation lasting two days. We put this individual event in perspective by examining the climate track in the observation and projection of flood hazard through analyzing changes in temperature, precipitation and intense precipitation. We also examine the non-climatic factors of flood risk, such as spatial development and river regulation. Further, we pose the question of whether actions aimed at flood risk reduction, predominantly by way of structural defenses in the catchment of the Kumiela River, really reduce the flood risk in Elbląg. We also offer more general remarks pertaining to flood risk reduction in Poland, primarily based on technical measures, and we unveil the shortcomings of the current flood risk management system in Poland. In the social consciousness, the structural flood defense strategy has become the norm of thinking in terms of methods for reducing the effects of floods in Poland, but this does not always contribute to reducing flood damage either locally or nationally. We refer to some good examples of preparedness for urban inundations caused by heavy precipitation in other cities.

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Contemporary changes of thermal conditions in Poland, 1951-2015

Cited by 48 publications

References 25 publications

Cold Waves in Poznań (Poland) and Thermal Conditions in the City during Selected Cold Waves

Cold Waves in Poznań (Poland) and Thermal Conditions in the City during Selected Cold Waves

Effect of Heat Wave Conditions on Aerosol Optical Properties Derived from Satellite and Ground-Based Remote Sensing over Poland

The September 2017 flood in Elbląg (Poland) in perspective

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