Continuous simulation for design flood estimation—a review

Boughton, Walter; Droop, Owen

doi:10.1016/s1364-8152(03)00004-5

Cited by 186 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Especially for flood modeling in smaller catchments, subdaily time steps are required for simulation. Given the restricted availability of those observed data, synthetic precipitation has recently been used more often for this purpose (Cameron et al, 1999;Blazkova and Beven, 2004;Aronica and Candela, 2007;Moretti and Montanari, 2008;Haberlandt et al, 2008;Boughton and Droop, 2003;Grimaldi et al, 2012b;Viglione et al, 2012). One challenge using this approach is the optimal calibration of the hydrological model considering the different nature of observed and synthetic precipitation data.…”

Section: U Haberlandt and I Radtke: Hydrological Model Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows

Haberlandt

Radtke

2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Derived flood frequency analysis allows the estimation of design floods with hydrological modeling for poorly observed basins considering change and taking into account flood protection measures. There are several possible choices regarding precipitation input, discharge output and consequently the calibration of the model. The objective of this study is to compare different calibration strategies for a hydrological model considering various types of rainfall input and runoff output data sets and to propose the most suitable approach. Event based and continuous, observed hourly rainfall data as well as disaggregated daily rainfall and stochastically generated hourly rainfall data are used as input for the model. As output, short hourly and longer daily continuous flow time series as well as probability distributions of annual maximum peak flow series are employed. The performance of the strategies is evaluated using the obtained different model parameter sets for continuous simulation of discharge in an independent validation period and by comparing the model derived flood frequency distributions with the observed one. The investigations are carried out for three mesoscale catchments in northern Germany with the hydrological model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System). The results show that (I) the same type of precipitation input data should be used for calibration and application of the hydrological model, (II) a model calibrated using a small sample of extreme values works quite well for the simulation of continuous time series with moderate length but not vice versa, and (III) the best performance with small uncertainty is obtained when stochastic precipitation data and the observed probability distribution of peak flows are used for model calibration. This outcome suggests to calibrate a hydrological model directly on probability distributions of observed peak flows using stochastic rainfall as input if its purpose is the application for derived flood frequency analysis.

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Section: U Haberlandt and I Radtke: Hydrological Model Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows

Haberlandt

Radtke

2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…DFE techniques for most countries can be grouped into two broad categories, which generally include approaches based on the statistical analysis of observed peak discharges and approaches based on event-modelling or continuous simulation modelling (CSM) using rainfall-runoff techniques (Boughton and Droop, 2003;Pathiraja et al, 2012;Smithers, 2012). Approaches to DFE in South Africa are similarly classified into two groups based on: (i) the analysis of observed flood peaks, and (ii) rainfall-runoff based techniques (Smithers and Schulze, 2002;Smithers, 2012), as depicted in Figure 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The numerous benefits of the rainfall-runoff CSM approaches to DFE have been highlighted within much of the literature both locally and internationally, including, inter alia: Calver and Lamb (1995); Cameron et al (1999); Smithers and Schulze (2002); Boughton and Droop (2003); Chetty and Smithers (2005); Brocca et al (2011);Pathiraja et al (2012); Smithers (2012); Smithers et al (2013);Cu (2016); Lamb et al (2016) and Smithers et al (2016). Examples of these benefits include the fact that actual climate information is input into a model which simulates the major processes which convert rainfall into runoff and therefore the antecedent soil moisture 94 is accounted for and not estimated or averaged.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and assessment of rules to parameterise the ACRU model for design flood estimation

Smithers

Rowe

Horan

et al. 2018

WSA

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Design flood estimation (DFE) is essential in the planning and design of hydraulic structures. In South Africa, outdated methods are widely applied for DFE. In this paper the potential of a continuous simulation modelling (CSM) approach to DFE in South Africa, using the daily time-step ACRU agrohydrological model, is investigated. The paper focuses on the links and similarities between the SCS-SA and ACRU models and the subsequent preliminary investigations that were undertaken to account for and incorporate the land cover classes, including land management practices and hydrological condition, of the SCS-SA model into the ACRU CSM approach. The approach to this study was to investigate how design volumes simulated by the SCS-SA model for various land management practices or conditions could be simulated by the ACRU model. Since peak discharge estimation in both models is directly dependent on simulated volumes, this preliminary study focused only on design runoff volumes, with subsequent investigations on peak discharge required in future research. In the absence of observed data, design runoff volumes and changes in design runoff volumes, as simulated by the SCS-SA model, were used as a substitute for observed data, i.e., as a reference, to achieve similar design runoff volumes and changes in design volumes in the ACRU model. This was achieved by adjusting relevant input parameters in the ACRU model to represent the change in management practice or hydrological condition, as represented in the SCS-SA model. Following a sensitivity analysis of relevant ACRU parameters, calibration of 2 selected parameters against SCS-SA CN values for selected land cover classes was performed. A strong linear relationship (R 2 = 0.94) between these ACRU parameters and SCS-SA CNs for selected land cover classes was found and consequently specific rules and equations were developed to represent SCS-SA land cover classes in ACRU. Recommendations are made to further validate and verify the approach and to further the development of a CSM system for DFE in South Africa.

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“…Several authors have estimated, with an acceptable degree of fit, the extremal frequency laws for the maximum inflows into a reservoir (hereinafter Qi) in various watersheds (with areas between 1 and 800 km 2 ) based on stochastic rain models coupled with the generation of integrated hydrographs in a Monte Carlo procedure (De Michele and Salvadori, 2002;Arnaud and Lavabre, 2002;Loukas, 2002;Rahman et al, 2002;Aronica and Candela, 2007;Samuel and Sivapalan, 2008). Other researchers have estimated these frequency laws by continuous simulation (Cameron et al, 2000;Boughton and Droop, 2003;Beven, 2004, 2009), although with some limitations due to the intensive demands of the calculations. This calculational complexity is caused by the spatial resolution (10-100 m) and the temporal resolution (hourly time steps) required to solve the equations in distributed models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme flood abatement in large dams with fixed-crest spillways

Sordo‐Ward

Garrote

Martín-Carrasco

et al. 2012

Journal of Hydrology

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SUMMARYThis study characterises the abatement effect of large dams with fixed-crest spillways under extreme design flood conditions. In contrast to previous studies using specific hydrographs for flow into the reservoir and simplifications to obtain analytical solutions, an automated tool was designed for calculations based on a Monte Carlo simulation environment, which integrates models that represent the different physical processes in watersheds with areas of 150-2000 km 2 .The tool was applied to 21 sites that were uniformly distributed throughout continental Spain, with 105 fixed-crest dam configurations. This tool allowed a set of hydrographs to be obtained as an approximation for the hydrological forcing of a dam and the characterisation of the response of the dam to this forcing. For all cases studied, we obtained a strong linear correlation between the peak flow entering the reservoir and the peak flow discharged by the dam, and a simple general procedure was proposed to characterise the peak-flow attenuation behaviour of the reservoir. Additionally, two dimensionless coefficients were defined to relate the variables governing both the generation of the flood and its abatement in the reservoir. Using these coefficients, a model was defined to allow for the estimation of the flood abatement effect of a reservoir based on the available information. This model should be useful in the hydrological design of spillways and the evaluation of the hydrological safety of dams. Finally, the proposed procedure and model were evaluated and representative applications were presented.

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Continuous simulation for design flood estimation—a review

Cited by 186 publications

References 30 publications

Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows

Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows

Development and assessment of rules to parameterise the ACRU model for design flood estimation

Extreme flood abatement in large dams with fixed-crest spillways

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