Contrasting Futures for Australia’s Fisheries Stocks Under IPCC RCP8.5 Emissions – A Multi-Ecosystem Model Approach

Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bulman, CM; Butler, Ian R.; Cheung, William W. L.; Dutra, Leo X.C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Hutton, Trevor; Matear, Richard J.; Lozano-Montes, Hector; Plagányi, Éva E.; Villanueva, Cecilia; Zhang, Xuebin

doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.577964

Cited by 19 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Using scenario‐based models in the management context remains challenging due to model uncertainties; however, this does not imply lack of relevance for EBFM (Skern‐Mauritzen et al., 2018). Uncertainties around model output can be assessed through sensitivity analyses and coordinated ensemble‐modelling approaches (Cheung et al., 2016; Fulton et al., 2019; Payne et al., 2016; Pethybridge et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Future For Climate‐adaptive Fisheries Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

The status of climate change adaptation in fisheries management: Policy, legislation and implementation

2021

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Climate change is considered a major threat to ocean ecosystems and human well-being (Blanchard et al., 2017; IPBES, 2019;Lotze et al., 2019). Changes in temperature, oxygen and other biogeochemical properties alter species distribution, growth, reproduction, abundance and trophic ecosystem structure (Cheung, Sarmiento, et al., 2013; IPCC, 2019). For example, many commercially important fishes and invertebrates are shifting their distribution towards polar, offshore or deeper waters to remain in their preferred thermal range . In addition, intensifying of marine heatwaves are affecting ecosystem structure and functioning (IPCC, 2019). Furthermore, due to the ongoing uptake of atmospheric CO 2 , the ocean is progressively acidifying (IPCC, 2019) which can be amplified by coastal upwelling (Feely et al., 2008), affecting cellular metabolism, organism physiology and ecosystem-level dynamics (Gattuso & Hansson, 2011).

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Section: The Future For Climate‐adaptive Fisheries Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

The status of climate change adaptation in fisheries management: Policy, legislation and implementation

2021

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“…Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable, with higher exposure and sensitivity compared with demersal and pelagic species. In general, species and ecosystems that are highly associated with the ocean floor are at greater risk than species that inhabit the water column 50 , with shallow water invertebrate species likely being more responsive to climate change 51 . Benthic species in the adult stage are characterized by limited movement capacity, and must respond in situ to multiple exposure factors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System

Ramos

Tam

Aramayo

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had “high” or “very high” vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.

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“…Regional studies, that is, studies carried out at a supra-national scale (encompassing more than one country or a region), were the second most frequent ones (n = 67), with examples of assessments including the Mediterranean Sea or the Arctic region (Khan et al, 2014;Danovaro, 2018). Studies focused on a particular nation, such as Australia or the United States (Ekstrom et al, 2015;Pethybridge et al, 2020), and studies carried out at a global scale (e.g., Hanson et al, 2011;Albouy et al, 2020) were the least common (c. 8 and 12% of references, respectively; Figure 2A). Regarding the elements considered in the assessments, "risk" (n = 217) and "vulnerability" (n = 184) themselves were the most frequently identified ones (appearing in over 77% of the studies; Figure 2B).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Related Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Main Ocean Uses: An Overview

2022

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Vulnerability and risk analyses have been increasingly used in a wide variety of contexts to support ocean management and planning processes. Depending on the context, such analyses may focus on different dimensions, spatial scales, and hazards. In the particular context of climate change, the variability inherent to the developed assessments has led to the emergence of numerous methodological frameworks, allowing for advances in the field while raising uncertainties on applied concepts, definitions, and approaches. In the present study, we developed a systematic literature review to analyze and discuss the key concepts, methodologies, and limitations of existing vulnerability and risk assessments of main ocean uses to global climate change. We analyzed over 314 scientific references regarding the elements considered in the analysis (e.g., exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity), dimensions (e.g., ecological, economic, social), type of indicators (e.g., quantitative, qualitative), maritime activities, climate-related drivers of change, and spatial scales. Results show that most vulnerability and risk assessments address fisheries and marine conservation, and that sea-level rise and extreme events are the most frequently considered climate-related drivers of change. The main identified limitations pertain to the level of subjectivity and the tremendous variety of concepts, areas of expertise, and systems addressed in such studies. We highlight that further research is needed particularly on the development of cross-sectoral studies and integrative approaches, using multiple indicators and frameworks. There is also a need for assessments explicitly designed to support ocean planning and integrated marine management processes. Review processes such as the present one provide a “big picture,” allowing for a global view on complex topics, and contributing to advances in the field.

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Contrasting Futures for Australia’s Fisheries Stocks Under IPCC RCP8.5 Emissions – A Multi-Ecosystem Model Approach

Cited by 19 publications

References 78 publications

The status of climate change adaptation in fisheries management: Policy, legislation and implementation

The status of climate change adaptation in fisheries management: Policy, legislation and implementation

Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System

Climate-Related Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Main Ocean Uses: An Overview

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