Contribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change to April–May 2017 Heavy Precipitation over the Uruguay River Basin

Abreu, Rafael Cesário de; Cunningham, Christopher; Rudorff, Conrado M.; Rudorff, Natália; Abatan, Abayomi A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Dong, Buwen; Lott, Fraser C.; Sparrow, Sarah

doi:10.1175/bams-d-18-0102.1

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Precipitation in 2017 in the Uruguay river basin (South America) [25] Precipitation Social: displacement of more than 3 500 people in Uruguay due to increased flooding along the Uruguay river.…”

Section: Cause Territorial Impact Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The area has an average annual rainfall of 1750 mm; however, since the end of the 21 st century, annual rainfall has been increasing and has caused large-scale water flows to start. Furthermore, an increase in the intensity, duration, and frequency of rainfall has been observed which may increase the risk factor of these extreme events occurring by a factor of 5 in the near future [25].…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A review of the relation between climate variability and mass removal processes

Barreto

Rojas²

2021

ing. Solidar

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This literature review article is a product of the Research Project “Relation Between Climate Variability with Mass Removal Processes. Tunja-Páez case study”, developed in the Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia in the year 2020. Introduction: This article focuses on the review of research studies and advances made during the last decade regarding the influence of climatic variability on the dynamics of slopes. Objective: To determine the influence of climatic variability in areas that present slope instability in the Tunja-Páez road corridor located in the department of Boyacá. Methods: A systematic review of information from books, manuals, reports, guides, and scientific articles on climate change, climate variability, mass removal processes, meteorological variables, and their influence on the resilience and adaptation of infrastructure related to containment and slope drainage projects. Results: The studies indicate criteria that relate temperature, precipitation and seismic activity with the occurrence of mass movements. Conclusion: Climatic anomalies in terms of precipitation and temperature has allowed research methodologies using probabilistic models to be developed for estimating the occurrence of said phenomena in future scenarios. Originality: The presented literature indicates the influence of climatic variability in the resulting mass removal processes as evidenced in studies at the global and national level. Limitations: This article scientific studies have been compiled that contrast the problems in the stability of slopes of the Tunja-Páez road corridor, without going into the details of these problems.

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Section: Cause Territorial Impact Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the relation between climate variability and mass removal processes

Barreto

Rojas²

2021

ing. Solidar

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“…According to research found in the literature, the Uruguay basin presented a positive trend in precipitation and streamflow during the late twentieth century (Pasquini and Depetris, 2007;Barros et al, 2008;Abreu et al, 2018). Abreu et al (2018) concluded that anthropogenic climate change has increased the risk of the extreme rainfall in this catchment by at least 2 times, with a median increase of about 5 times. It is important to emphasize that the Uruguay River has large flow variation, from the occurrence of great floods, which affect riverside populations, to lack of water for human consumption and other necessities.…”

Section: Analysis Of the Maximum Annual Fluviometric Level Of The Urumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These hazards can be prevented and reduced by providing reliable information to the public about the flood hazard through flood inundation maps (Alaghmand et al, 2010;Demir and Kisi, 2016). This information can, for example, assist urban management or even help the rescue operations during these events (Cook and Merwade, 2009), thus helping the communities directly to avoid or mitigate such future losses and damage (Arrighi et al, 2013;Savage et al, 2014;Speckhann et al, 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

Delimitation of flood areas based on a calibrated a DEM and geoprocessing: case study on the Uruguay River, Itaqui, southern Brazil

Araújo

Amaro

Silva

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Flooding is a natural disaster which affects thousands of riverside, coastal, and urban communities causing severe damage. River flood mapping is the process of determining inundation extents and depth by comparing historical river water levels with ground surface elevation references. This paper aims to map flood hazard areas under the influence of the Uruguay River, Itaqui (southern Brazil), using a calibration digital elevation model (DEM), historic river level data and geoprocessing techniques. The temporal series of maximum annual level records of the Uruguay River, for the years 1942 to 2017, were linked to the Brazilian Geodetic System using geometric leveling and submitted for descriptive statistical analysis and probability. The DEM was calibrated with ground control points (GCPs) of high vertical accuracy based on post-processed high-precision Global Navigation Satellite System surveys. Using the temporal series statistical analysis results, the spatialization of flood hazard classes on the calibrated DEM was assessed and validated. Finally, the modeling of the simulated flood level was visually compared against the flood area on the satellite image, which were both registered on the same date. The free DEM calibration model indicated high correspondence with GCPs (R2=0.81; p<0.001). The calibrated DEM showed a 68.15 % improvement in vertical accuracy (RMSE = 1.00 m). Five classes of flood hazards were determined: extremely high flood hazard, high flood hazard, moderate flood hazard, low flood hazard, and non-floodable. The flood episodes, with a return time of 100 years, were modeled with a 57.24 m altimetric level. Altimetric levels above 51.66 m have a high potential of causing damage, mainly affecting properties and public facilities in the city's northern and western peripheries. Assessment of the areas that can potentially be flooded can help to reduce the negative impact of flood events by supporting the process of land use planning in areas exposed to flood hazard.

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“…The magnitude of the scaling factor and its confidence interval is then used to make inferences about the causation of the external forcing in the observed changes. Although some Detection and Attribution (D&A) studies have been made for particular weather events in Brazil (de Abreu et al, ; Otto et al, ), no long‐term change attribution studies have been conducted in South America. Further, few D&A studies have been made to attribute human‐induced climate change in subnational scale as done here.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of Detected Temperature Trends in Southeast Brazil

Abreu

Tett

Schurer

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Southeast Brazil has great economic importance for Brazil and is highly vulnerable to extreme events like floods and droughts. Studies have shown an increase of temperature in this region. Using a new detection and attribution framework (Ribes et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3079-6) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, this change is found to be largely due to greenhouse gases. We estimate that greenhouse gases contribute a warming of 0.95 to 1.5 °C to the observed warming trend of 1.1 °C between 1955 and 2004. Temperature changes from natural and nongreenhouse gas anthropogenic forcing are estimated to be small over this period. Results are robust using different time windows. Using the Community Earth System Model ensembles to evaluate the impacts of internal variability, observational and model error shows that most uncertainty arises from model error.

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Contribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change to April–May 2017 Heavy Precipitation over the Uruguay River Basin

Cited by 14 publications

References 15 publications

A review of the relation between climate variability and mass removal processes

A review of the relation between climate variability and mass removal processes

Delimitation of flood areas based on a calibrated a DEM and geoprocessing: case study on the Uruguay River, Itaqui, southern Brazil

Attribution of Detected Temperature Trends in Southeast Brazil

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