Contribution of large‐scale circulation anomalies to variability of summer precipitation extremes in northeast China

Cao, Fang; Li, Dan; Ma, Zhuguo; Yang, Xiaoxuan; Yang, Fuqiang

doi:10.1002/asl.867

Cited by 18 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Northeast China. NE is located in the middle-high latitudes, and is more sensitive to climate change 53,54 . Table 1 shows that the temperature increases in the 1980s, and the precipitation decreases (increases) in summer (winter).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the regional climate impact on terrestrial ecosystem over East Asia using coupled models with land use and land cover forcing during 1980–2010

Cao

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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activities and climate change 11-13. However, existing studies focusing on the interaction between climate change and LULCC are mainly concentrated on the effects of the LULCC on regional climate change 5,14-19 , very few researches have been carried out on the issues about how the regional climate change influences LULCC. LULCC is a forcing impact on the surface heat fluxes, which leads to the climate changes at different spatial and temporal scales, and vice versa 20. Sivakumar 21 analyzed the two-way interactions between climate and desertification, and concluded that the variations in land degradation over the drylands mainly result from the climatic changes and human activities. During 1986-2003 in India, the enhanced increasing trend in meteorological conditions, especially temperature and precipitation, results in the increasing wasteland, uncultivated land and water body, but the decreases occur in the cultivated land. In addition, the decrease in forest may be attributed to the increase in built-up land and population 22. In sub-humid, semi-arid and arid regions, the land degradation resulted from the loss of vegetation cover is largely caused by climate change, which can impact species succession, hydrologic cycles and soil quality, and therefore expands the dryland areas 23-26. Alves et al. 26 found that climate change plays an important role on the land degradation (desertification) in Brazil from 1950 to 2013. Rahman 23 reported that total rainfall has significant effects on the increases in agricultural land use diversity over Bangladesh during 1948-2008. In China, Feng et al. 24 conducted the quantitative assessments of interactions between climate change and desertification through long-term monitoring from 1983 to 2012, and suggested that climate change accounts for roughly 46.6% of the effects on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and desertification. Shi and Chen 27 pointed out that temperature exhibits a stronger correlation with NDVI compared to rainfall by analyzing the linkage between LULCC and climate change in Yunnan Province. The influences of climate change on land use change over Poyang Lake district are discernible during 1985-2035, and the global warming may even amplify these complex interactions. Thus, the variations in forest, grassland and cropland are more sensitive to climate change than unused land 19,28. With ongoing climate change, desertification shows an accelerated trend under the RCP 8.5 scenario over middle and northern Middle Asia, Mongolian Plateau and northwestern China, except for Xinjiang. Moreover, the RCP 8.5 scenario triggers a more strengthened trend of desertification in comparison with the RCP 2.6 scenario 29. Based on 30-year NDVI, Liu et al. 30 confirmed the importance of temperature on the phenological processes in China, and also suggested the incorporation of precipitation and temperature into phenological models to improve their performances. Through reviewing literature on relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climate events, Frank et ...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the regional climate impact on terrestrial ecosystem over East Asia using coupled models with land use and land cover forcing during 1980–2010

Cao

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…These estimates will allow evaluating the contribution of rainfall above these thresholds and which could or could not cause flooding. In addition, the methodology of Cao et al [23] is used to avoid overlapping of the studied events. It stipulates that a unit of ±5 is applied to the percentile threshold.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diagnosis of the Causes of the Rain Flooding in June in the West Africa Coastal Area

Amouin¹,

Kouadio²,

Kacou³

et al. 2021

ACS

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Rain flooding during June on the West Africa coastal area is analyzed by using the 95th and 75th percentiles, which represent extreme and intense rainfall events respectively. Thus, the contribution of these events that reaches around 50% shows their impact on the rainfall in June. Atmospheric and oceanic factors influence the rain flooding. Indeed, the extreme events are associated with easterly waves propagating from 20˚E, while those of intense events are initiated around 5˚E. The impact of oceanic conditions exhibits the warming of the equatorial rail and the Atlantic cold tongue, the warming of the whole ocean basin and a north-south dipole of SST anomalies. The West African monsoon that reaches Abidjan corresponds to a low-level atmospheric flow, whose upward motion extends in latitude from the ocean to the continent. An increase of disturbance contributes to enhancing these events. This is confirmed by the inflow on to the continent of oceanic moisture coming from the ventilation by evaporation of warm water. In addition, the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations are one of the best candidates that could help to better explain these dramatic events. This study is useful because of showing solutions that could help in adoption of policies for the risks management related to these events.

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“…Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres precipitation, respectively. The precipitation percentile-based indices were used to define the intense and extreme rainfall events (Cao et al, 2018). The 75th percentile precipitation was also used in extreme precipitation studies at regional scales, such as in China (Cao et al, 2018) and the United States (Marquardt Collow et al, 2016).…”

Section: 1029/2020jd033894mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The precipitation percentile-based indices were used to define the intense and extreme rainfall events (Cao et al, 2018). The 75th percentile precipitation was also used in extreme precipitation studies at regional scales, such as in China (Cao et al, 2018) and the United States (Marquardt Collow et al, 2016). PR75p, PR85p, and PR95p on a monthly basis were thus used to define the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation for further investigation on the contribution of heavy rainfall with different intensities to DWAA over China.…”

Section: 1029/2020jd033894mentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Abrupt Shifts Between Dry and Wet Extremes Over China Through an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

et al. 2020

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The dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) event, which is defined as the phenomenon of dry (or wet) spells abruptly following wet (or dry) spells, magnifies the influence of individual wet and dry events. The dynamic evolution of DWAA events has not been studied for different climate zones of China that is particularly susceptible to dry and wet extremes. This study explores the future changes in the abrupt alternations between dry and wet extremes across 10 climate divisions of China, with a thorough assessment of dry and wet conditions using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We take advantage of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations including the Providing Regional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) experiment and five CORDEX East Asia experiments to produce high-resolution climate information for a baseline period of 1975-2004 and a future period of 2069-2098. Our findings disclose that a total of 70% of China's land area suffered from the DWAA events at least once during 1975-2004. The wet-dry alternation event is projected to become more frequent in summer, and a prominent increase in the number of dry-wet alternation events is expected to occur in spring over most parts of China. Moreover, an increasing number of DWAA events with intensified magnitude is projected to strike the North China Plain dominated by warm temperature and humid zone, which is the most densely populated region of the country and is also the largest agriculture production area. Our findings also reveal a strong positive correlation between DWAA and heavy rainfall. The 95th percentile rainfall event contributes most to the wet-dry alternation event for most climate divisions of China. Plain Language Summary The emerging disaster of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) has been receiving increasing attention due to its compound effects on agricultural production and socioeconomic development. Since China is exposed to dry and wet hydrological extremes as well as their interconnections, a first attempt is made in this study to explore the historical evolution and the future change in the abrupt shifts between dry and wet extremes for different climate divisions of China. Our findings reveal that a total of 70% of China's land area suffered from DWAA events at least once from 1975 to 2004. More importantly, the DWAA is expected to occur more frequently and intense by the end of the 21st century, especially for the North China Plain which is the most densely populated region of the country and is also the largest agricultural production area. Moreover, the summertime wet-dry alternation is expected to become more frequent for most climate divisions of China, while the dry-wet alternation event is projected to occur more frequently in spring over East China. These findings provide meaningful insights into the development of adaptation strategies for enhancing society's resilience to compound extremes in a changing climate.

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Contribution of large‐scale circulation anomalies to variability of summer precipitation extremes in northeast China

Cited by 18 publications

References 37 publications

Assessing the regional climate impact on terrestrial ecosystem over East Asia using coupled models with land use and land cover forcing during 1980–2010

Assessing the regional climate impact on terrestrial ecosystem over East Asia using coupled models with land use and land cover forcing during 1980–2010

Diagnosis of the Causes of the Rain Flooding in June in the West Africa Coastal Area

Projected Changes in Abrupt Shifts Between Dry and Wet Extremes Over China Through an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

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