Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing and Multidecadal Internal Variability to Mid‐20th Century Arctic Cooling—CMIP6/DAMIP Multimodel Analysis

Aizawa, Takuro; Oshima, Naga; Yukimoto, Seiji

doi:10.1029/2021gl097093

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Based on the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trends (Kendall, 1975;Mann, 1945), the 10-year sum of melt frequency shows a statistically significant increasing trend (p < 0.001, Figure 4b). Although the ongoing Arctic warming first started in the 1970s (Aizawa et al, 2022), our results suggest that the warming in recent decades began in the 1980s, creating an environment likely to form a ML at the SE-Dome site. Figure 4c shows the melt thickness per year between 1800 and 2020 in the SE-Dome II ice core, including the ML thickness and the thickness equivalents of the PMPs.…”

Section: Relationship Between the Melt Layer Thickness And Arctic Sum...mentioning

confidence: 68%

“…In the Arctic, temporal warming has occurred starting in the 1920s (Chylek et al., 2006). Subsequently, the Arctic temperature declined around 1970, warmed in the 1980s (Aizawa et al., 2022), followed by more warming into the present (Serreze & Francis, 2006). According to ice core studies, the recent temperatures in north and central GrIS are on average 1.5 ± 0.4°C higher than in the twentieth century (Hörhold et al., 2023).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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SE‐Dome II Ice Core Dating With Half‐Year Precision: Increasing Melting Events From 1799 to 2020 in Southeastern Greenland

Kawakami,

Iizuka,

Sasage

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Arctic warming has accelerated surface melting even in the highland areas of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Understanding the relationship between climate and surface melting is essential for improving the estimates of ice‐sheet mass loss due to warming. Here we analyze a 250 m‐long ice core from the southeastern dome of GrIS (SE‐Dome site; 67°19′17″ N, 36°47′03″ W, 3161 m a.s.l.), where the annual mean temperature is −20.9 °C and the accumulation rate is high and there is a large discrepancy among climate models regarding snow accumulation estimates. A time scale was established for 1799–2020 with a half‐year uncertainty using annual counting of H2O2 concentration and five time horizons determined by electrical conductivity, melt events, and tritium concentration. The annual accumulation rate from the ice core shows no significant trend over 221 years and has an average of 1.04 ± 0.20 m w.e. yr−1. In contrast, the frequency and thickness of refrozen melt layer have increased over 221 years, and are synchronized with temperature changes in the Arctic. The thickness of the melt layers correlates positively with the time‐integrated summer temperature anomaly using a reanalysis of air temperature. The in‐situ accumulation records in the southeastern GrIS provide an important basis for correcting reanalysis data such as ERA5, which in turn are valuable for improving regional climate models.

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Section: Relationship Between the Melt Layer Thickness And Arctic Sum...mentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

SE‐Dome II Ice Core Dating With Half‐Year Precision: Increasing Melting Events From 1799 to 2020 in Southeastern Greenland

Kawakami,

Iizuka,

Sasage

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Bonfils et al (2020) reported that only models that accounted for detailed aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) could reproduce the observed ITCZ migration. MRI-ESM2.0 elaborately describes ACIs (Kawai et al, 2019;Oshima et al, 2020) and accurately reproduces the mean state of the meridional energy transport (Kawai et al, 2021) and temperature changes for the twenti eth century (Aizawa et al, 2021(Aizawa et al, , 2022Yukimoto et al, 2019).…”

Section: Mri-esm20 and Cmip6 Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of Interhemispheric Heat Transport and Global Atmospheric Cooling in Multidecadal Trends of Northern Hemisphere Precipitation

Yukimoto

Oshima

Deushi

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Changes in the hydrological cycle in the northern hemisphere (NH) have a significant socioeconomic impact. Thus, quantifying past changes and projecting future changes in this cycle are important. We analyzed the positive and negative multidecadal trends in the NH mean precipitation since the 1950s that were accurately reproduced by a state‐of‐the‐art Earth system model. Results showed that changes in the interhemispheric heat transport play a major role in the NH atmospheric heat budget, accounting for 59% of the negative‐to‐positive trend change in NH precipitation through a north–south shift in the tropical precipitation zone, and were strongly linked to Hadley circulation anomaly. The remaining 41% corresponded to changes in atmospheric cooling with small interhemispheric differences, which were primarily related to clear‐sky longwave radiation. These findings quantitatively agreed with the results from a multimodel analysis.

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“…While the dominant role of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) in driving the recent Arctic warming is well established (e.g. Najafi et al 2015, Polvani et al 2020, England 2021, Aizawa et al 2022, other anthropogenic forcings-notably, aerosols-may have contributed as well. England (2021) found that anthropogenic aerosol forcing warmed the Arctic at a rate of 0.18 • C/decade during 1975-2019 (compared with a warming of 0.59 • C/decade during this period from GHGs).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic warming in response to regional aerosol emissions reductions

Previdi

Lamarque

Fiore

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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This study examines the Arctic surface air temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions using three fully coupled chemistry-climate models: NCAR-CESM1, GFDL-CM3 and GISS-E2-R. Each of these models was used to perform a series of aerosol perturbation experiments, in which emissions of different aerosol types (sulfate, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon) in different northern mid-latitude source regions, and of biomass burning aerosol over South America and Africa, were substantially reduced or eliminated. We find that the Arctic warms in nearly every experiment, the only exceptions being the U.S. and Europe BC experiments in GFDL-CM3 in which there is a weak and insignificant cooling. The Arctic warming is generally larger than the global mean warming (i.e., Arctic amplification occurs), particularly during non-summer months. The models agree that changes in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport are the most important factor explaining the spread in Arctic warming across experiments: the largest warming tends to coincide with the largest increases in moisture transport into the Arctic. In contrast, there is an inconsistent relationship (correlation) across experiments between the local radiative forcing over the Arctic and the simulated Arctic warming, with this relationship being positive in one model (GFDL-CM3) and negative in the other two. Our results thus highlight the prominent role of poleward energy transport in driving Arctic warming and amplification, and suggest that the relative importance of poleward energy transport and local forcing/feedbacks is likely to be model dependent.

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Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing and Multidecadal Internal Variability to Mid‐20th Century Arctic Cooling—CMIP6/DAMIP Multimodel Analysis

Abstract: Over the past century, observed surface air temperatures (SATs) in the Arctic have exhibited substantial multidecadal variations: early-20th-century warming, mid-20th-century cooling, and subsequent ongoing enhanced warming (e.g.,

Cited by 10 publications

References 66 publications

SE‐Dome II Ice Core Dating With Half‐Year Precision: Increasing Melting Events From 1799 to 2020 in Southeastern Greenland

SE‐Dome II Ice Core Dating With Half‐Year Precision: Increasing Melting Events From 1799 to 2020 in Southeastern Greenland

Role of Interhemispheric Heat Transport and Global Atmospheric Cooling in Multidecadal Trends of Northern Hemisphere Precipitation

Arctic warming in response to regional aerosol emissions reductions

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