Controlling Uncertainty

Abstract

Complex dynamic control tasks (CDC tasks) are a type of problem-solving environment used for examining many cognitive activities (e.g., attention, control, decision making, hypothesis testing, implicit learning, memory, monitoring, planning, and problem solving). Because of their popularity, there have been many findings from diverse domains of research (Economics, Engineering, Ergonomics, Human Computer Interaction (HCI), Management, Psychology), which remain largely disconnected from each other. The objective of this article is to review theoretical developments and empirical work on CDC tasks, and to introduce a novel framework (Monitoring and Control framework) as a tool for integrating theory and findings. The main thesis of the Monitoring and Control framework is that CDC tasks are characteristically uncertain environments, and subjective judgments of uncertainty guide the way in which monitoring and control behaviors attempt to reduce it. The article concludes by discussing new insights into continuing debates and future directions for research on CDC tasks.

Repeated causal decision making.

“…This idea is consistent with research on control tasks (cf. Osman, 2010), which usually found that people mainly learned to control the system by learning contingencies between actions and outcomes.…”

“…Findings from research on dynamic decision making indicate that people are able to learn to successfully manipulate and manage complex causal systems (Osman, 2010). However, this research also indicates that decision makers usually acquire only limited knowledge about the causal structure of the system (Berry & Broadbent, 1995; but see Hagmayer, Meder, Osman, Mangold, & Lagnado, 2010).…”

Behavioral Economics: Where Is It Heading?

“…For any application of the understanding of social dynamics to economic/ financial institutions, each question has to be successfully addressed in turn, and requires a formal characterization of dynamic decision-making that occurs at an individual, group and global economic level (Osman, 2014). Thus, answering these questions will involve innovations in empirical methods, possibly along the lines that have been discussed in this article, and also innovations in formal and theoretical frameworks that focus on detailing the mechanisms behind dynamic behavior (external to as well as internal to the agent(s)) (Osman, 2010).…”

What are the essential cognitive requirements for prospection (thinking about the future)?

“…Our ability to construct representations of the future and adapt to future outcomes is built on basic contingency learning mechanisms that generate expectations and plans of actions. Expectations and plans of action are guided by the discovery of, and maintenance of goals (e.g., Kempton, 1986; Osman, 2010, 2014; Pezzulo and Rigoli, 2011). We are able to reach our goals by learning to associate planned actions with intended outcomes (Strathman et al, 1994; Karniol and Ross, 1996).…”