2010
DOI: 10.1037/a0017815
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Controlling uncertainty: A review of human behavior in complex dynamic environments.

Abstract: Complex dynamic control tasks (CDC tasks) are a type of problem-solving environment used for examining many cognitive activities (e.g., attention, control, decision making, hypothesis testing, implicit learning, memory, monitoring, planning, and problem solving). Because of their popularity, there have been many findings from diverse domains of research (Economics, Engineering, Ergonomics, Human Computer Interaction (HCI), Management, Psychology), which remain largely disconnected from each other. The objectiv… Show more

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Cited by 189 publications
(177 citation statements)
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References 258 publications
(565 reference statements)
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“…In general, performance in causal induction increases substantially, when people can observe temporal relations or can intervene (Lagnado and Sloman 2004). Research on the control of complex systems shows that participants often gain very limited knowledge about the underlying causal structure despite extensive learning experience (Osman 2010). HBMs can explain this finding as the available evidence in these studies was often compatible with numerous causal hypotheses, and participants normally lacked domain specific knowledge (see, Hagmayer, Meder, Osman, Mangold, and Lagnado 2010, for a more detailed discussion).…”
Section: Abstract Theories In Causal Inductionsupporting
confidence: 60%
“…In general, performance in causal induction increases substantially, when people can observe temporal relations or can intervene (Lagnado and Sloman 2004). Research on the control of complex systems shows that participants often gain very limited knowledge about the underlying causal structure despite extensive learning experience (Osman 2010). HBMs can explain this finding as the available evidence in these studies was often compatible with numerous causal hypotheses, and participants normally lacked domain specific knowledge (see, Hagmayer, Meder, Osman, Mangold, and Lagnado 2010, for a more detailed discussion).…”
Section: Abstract Theories In Causal Inductionsupporting
confidence: 60%
“…It has been demonstrated on numerous occasions both in field studies and laboratory experiments that human decision-makers confronted with complex situations fail to perform satisfactorily despite their well-intended efforts (Frensch and Funke, 1995;Gonzalez, Vanyukov, and Martin, 2005;Osman, 2010a;Quesada, Kintsch, and Gomez, 2005;Yasarcan, 2009). Using computer-simulations of complex situations, Dörner (1996) noted particular examples of behaviors leading to successful performance (e.g., active learning and hypothesis testing) as well as numerous instances of poor behaviors leading to failure, which were generally linked to cognitive limitations and poor understanding and/or decision-making strategies (e.g., thinking in terms of isolated cause-and-effect relationships).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…From a psychological perspective, we can conceive of this decision situation as a complex problem because very generally speaking, complex problems require dealing with (psychological) uncertainty [2]. Therefore, in the present paper, we wish to stress the psychological problem solving perspective: in order to do so we will first give an introduction to the concept of complex problems and how it applies to the CE situation.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%